考虑攻击相关性的蠕虫传播模型  

Worm Propagation Model Considering Attack Correlation

作　　者：宋明秋[1] 李艳博 SONG Ming-qiu;LI Yan-bo(School of Management and Economics,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024,China)

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学经济管理学院,辽宁大连116024

出　　处：《运筹与管理》2020年第1期79-85,共7页Operations Research and Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71171028)。

摘　　要：网络节点的感染概率直接对蠕虫的传播过程产生影响,而攻击行为的相关性会加大节点的感染概率.基于此,本文提出了考虑攻击相关性的STIR蠕虫传播模型.根据攻击相关性的特点,给出感染概率的更新计算方法,并利用状态转移概率法对传播过程进行数学描述,推导传播临界值的计算公式,最后在无标度网络中进行仿真分析.实验结果验证了数值推导出的传播临界值的正确性.与未考虑攻击相关性的蠕虫传播模型相比,STIR模型能够更好地模拟蠕虫的传播过程.同时在研究中还发现,感染概率初始值、感染变化率和传播概率的增加都会加大蠕虫的传播速度和传播规模.The infection probability of the network node directly affects the propagation process of the worm,and the correlation of the attack behavior increases the infection probability of the node.This paper proposes a worm propagation model-STIR that considers attack correlation.According to the characteristics of attack correlation,the model presents the update formula of the infection probability.The state transition probability method is used to mathematically describe the propagation process,and the calculation formula of the propagation threshold is deduced.Finally,the simulation experiment is performed in a scale-free network.The results verify the correct-ness of propagation threshold.Compared with the worm propagation model which does not consider attack corre-lation,this model can simulate the worm propagation process better.At the same time,it is also showed that the increase in the initial value of the infection probability,the rate of infection change and the propagation probability also accelerate the speed and scale of worm propagation.

关 键 词：攻击相关性 蠕虫传播 感染概率 状态转移概率 

分 类 号：TP393[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]