冲击模型中强度的预测  

Forecasting of the Strength in Shock Model

作　　者：张权[1] 李艳君[1] 韩旸[1] ZHANG Quan;LI Yan-jun;HAN Yang(Science College,Qiqihaer University,Qiqihaer 161006,China)

机构地区：[1]齐齐哈尔大学理学院,黑龙江齐齐哈尔161006

出　　处：《运筹与管理》2020年第1期96-98,共3页Operations Research and Management Science

基　　金：“十二五”国家科技支撑计划项目(2013BAK12B0803);黑龙江省教育厅项目(135109233);齐齐哈尔大学教研项目(2016016)。

摘　　要：提出了冲击强度预测模型.结合历史数据信息,用线性最小方差方法给出了冲击强度未来n步的预测值,并在正态假设下,推导出预测值Yt+n|Yt,Yt-1,…的置信水平为1-α的置信区间.In practical engineering applications,many factors of system themselves and of random environments cause systems to suffer from degradation and shocks.Shocking is a significant cause of system failure and hence has been paid more attention to.In this paper,A forecasting model of the shock strength is presented.Based on the available history of the strength series up to time t,we would forecast the valve of in the minimum mean square error forecasting.The confidence interval for the predicated valve is given in normality assumption.This model will have wide application in many fields.A numerical example is given to illustrate the model.

关 键 词：ARS(P)预测模型 冲击强度 格林函数 预测 

分 类 号：O213[理学—概率论与数理统计] O211.62[理学—数学]