基于马尔可夫链的水面舰艇作战减员评估  

Evaluation of operational casualty for surface warships based on Markov chain

作　　者：任东彦 陶峰[2] 刘文宝[1] REN Dong-yan;TAO Feng;LIU Wen-bao(Department of Naval Tactical Medcine,Faculty of Health Services,Naval Medical University(Second Military Medical University),Shanghai 200433,China;Department of Naval Environment and Labor Hygiene,Faculty of Naval Medicine,Naval Medical University(Second Military Medical University),Shanghai 200433,China)

机构地区：[1]海军军医大学(第二军医大学)卫生勤务学系海军战术医学教研室,上海200433 [2]海军军医大学(第二军医大学)海军医学系海军环境与劳动卫生学教研室,上海200433

出　　处：《第二军医大学学报》2020年第3期321-324,共4页Academic Journal of Second Military Medical University

基　　金：军队后勤科研重点项目(BWS13C008,BWS17J020).

摘　　要：本文通过分析舰艇被多次命中的特点,对水面舰艇承受打击的能力进行量化,建立了合理的命中概率数学模型;将随机过程中的马尔可夫链应用于舰艇被多次命中的减员评估,并通过示例计算出舰艇被多次命中下的减员状况,取得了较好的效果,为水面舰艇作战减员评估提供了一种有效方法。By analyzing the characteristics of warships under multiple attacks and quantifying the ability of surface warships to withstand attacks,we established a rational mathematical model of attack probability.The Markov chain in random process was used to evaluate the operational casualty.The operational casualty under multiple attacks was calculated through examples,which achieved satisfactory results and could provide an effective method for evaluating operational casualty.

关 键 词：马尔可夫链 多次命中 作战减员评估 水面舰艇 

分 类 号：R821.81[医药卫生—临床医学]