基于证据的熔融金属作业Safety Case方法  

Safety case method of molten metal operations based on evidence

作　　者：高东 孙恩吉[3] 李仲学[1,2] 张延凯[1,2] 李军 GAO Dong;SUN Enji;LI Zhongxue;ZHANG Yankai;LI Jun(School of Civil and Resource Engineering,University of Science and Technology Beijing,Beijing 100083,China;Key Laboratory of Ministry of Education for Efficient Mining and Safety of Metal Mines,University of Science and Technology Beijing,Beijing 100083,China;Industrial Safety Institute,China Academy of Safety Science and Technology,Beijing 100012,China)

机构地区：[1]北京科技大学土木与资源工程学院,北京100083 [2]北京科技大学金属矿山高效开采与安全教育部重点实验室,北京100083 [3]中国安全生产科学研究院工业安全研究所,北京100012

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2020年第3期170-176,共7页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：“十三五”国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0805100)。

摘　　要：为定量表征熔融金属作业安全状态,采用Safety Case,GSN方法,对熔融金属作业影响因素、生产周期、作业区段等进行安全性分析,构建1种基于证据的熔融金属作业Safety Case方法框架;在此基础上,基于证据理论,构建安全论证数学模型,提出熔融金属作业Safety Case方法。最后,以某熔融金属作业系统为实例,对其安全状态进行论证,得出该熔融金属作业系统安全状态量值及安全状态。结果表明该方法在熔融金属作业安全论证方面具有一定的可行性与有效性,可为熔融金属作业安全论证提供思路与方法。In order to quantitatively characterize the safety status of molten metal operations,the safety case and goal structuring notation(GSN)methods were used to carry out the safety analysis on the influencing factors,production cycle and operation sections of molten metal operations,and a framework of Safety case method for the molten metal operations based on the evidence was constructed.On this basis,based on the evidence theory,a mathematical model of safety demonstration was constructed,and a Safety case method of molten metal operations was proposed.Finally,taking a molten metal operating system as an example,its safety status was demonstrated,and the safety state value and safety state of the molten metal operating system were obtained.The results showed that the method has certain feasibility and effectiveness in the safety demonstration of molten metal operations,and provides new ideas and methods for the safety demonstration of molten metal operations.

关 键 词：SAFETY CASE 证据理论 安全论证 熔融金属 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]