灾害补偿、农业保险与农村居民消费倾向  

Disaster Compensation,Agricultural Insurance and Propensity to Consume of Rural Resdents

作　　者：方薪 刘学宁[1] 李涛 FANG Xin;LIU Xue-ning;LI Tao(School of Economics,Qingdao University,Qingdao 266071,China)

机构地区：[1]青岛大学经济学院,青岛266071

出　　处：《青岛大学学报（自然科学版）》2020年第1期52-61,共10页Journal of Qingdao University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(批准号:71273148)资助;国家社会科学基金(批准号:18BGL200)资助;青岛市双百调研项目(批准号:2018-C-03)资助。

摘　　要：构建家庭消费最优决策模型,理论证明农业保险与农村居民消费存在非线性关系。基于2007~2017年中国31省份面板数据,构建系统GMM动态模型和面板门槛效应实证分析灾害补偿、农业保险与农村居民消费倾向的关系,研究结果表明,农业保险发展水平与农村居民消费倾向存在正向非线性关系,人均保费门槛值459.9408两侧系数差异显著,农业保险发展初期促进农村居民消费倾向作用更强;农业保险灾害补偿与农村居民消费倾向负相关,保障不足、灾害补偿率低抑制了农业保险对农村居民消费倾向的促进作用。It is proved that there is a non-linear relationship between agricultural insurance and rural residents'consumption by establishing a optimal decision-making model of household consumption.Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2007 to 2017,the dynamic panel SYS-GMM model and the panel threshold model are established to empirically analyze the relationship between disaster compensation,agricultural insurance and propensity to consume of rural residents.It's showed that there is a positive and non-linear relationship between the level of agricultural insurance development and propensity to consume;the threshold of per capita premium is 459.9408,and there is a significant difference in the coefficients on the both sides of the threshold,at the early stage of agricultural insurance development,the role of promoting rural residents'consumption tendency is stronger;disaster compensation of agricultural insurance is negatively correlated with propensity to consume of residents,and insufficient security and low disaster compensation rate inhibite the promotion of agricultural insurance on rural residents'consumption propensity.

关 键 词：灾害补偿 农业保险 农村居民消费 门槛效应 

分 类 号：F320.1[经济管理—产业经济]