“全面二孩”政策下四川省人口发展形势分析  

Analysis on population development situation under“Two-child Policy”in Sichuan Province

作　　者：张成 赵晓恒[1] 倪洁[1] 巫抑扬[1] 力晓蓉[1] ZHANG Cheng;ZHAO Xiao-heng;NI Jie;WU Yi-yang;LI Xiao-rong(Sichuan Provincial Institute of Health Policy and Medical Information,Chengdu Sichuan 610041,China)

机构地区：[1]四川省卫生健康政策和医学情报研究所,四川成都610041

出　　处：《卫生软科学》2020年第4期23-26,35,共5页Soft Science of Health

摘　　要：[目的]为了解当前四川省人口形势及人口发展趋势,制定科学的人口发展战略,应对人口问题挑战提供决策参考。[方法]以《四川省卫生健康统计年鉴2018》《四川统计年鉴2018》《四川省人口统计公报2018》等资料中相关人口指标为基础,采用百分数、构成比等对“全面二孩”政策实施以来四川省人口发展形势变化状况进行纵向分析。[结果]2018年的出生人口数同比下降1.60%,2017年四川省生育状况调查认为,“全面二孩”政策的实施对生育行为没有影响的比例高达77.4%;2018年全省老年抚养比20.44%,当前四川省仍处于人口红利期。[结论]四川省的人口生育水平较低,老龄化程度形势严峻,劳动力人口相对平稳。Objective To know current population situation and development trend in Sichuan Province,formulate scientific population development strategy,and response population problem challenge to provide reference for decision-making.Methods It took relevant population index as the basis which the data from“Sichuan Provincial Health Statistical Yearbook 2018”,“Sichuan Provincial Statistical Yearbook 2018”,“Sichuan Provincial Population Bulletin 2018”.It conducted vertical analysis on population development change situation after the implementation of“Two-child Policy”by percentage and constituent ratio.Results The number of newly-born population declined 1.6%on year-on-year basis in 2018.According to fertility status survey in Sichuan province in 2017,it thought that had no influence in fertility behavior after the implementation of“Two-child Policy”with the proportion of 77.4%.The old-age dependency ratio was 20.44%in Sichuan province in 2018.Sichuan province was still in demographic bonus period at present.Conclusions The population fertility level is low,aging degree is in grave difficulties,labor force population is relative steady.

关 键 词：全面二孩 生育水平 抚养比 人口发展形势 四川 

分 类 号：R169[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]