气候变化下闽东山区蒸发量变化趋势及影响因素  

Study on the trend and influencing factors of evaporation in the East Fujian mountainous area under climate change

作　　者：杨红素 郑双凤 王政 谢华清 陈序东 YANG Hong-su;ZHENG Shuang-feng;WANG Zheng;XIE Hua-qing;CHEN Xu-dong(Shouning County Meteorological Bureau of Fujian,Shouning,Fujian 355500,China;Ningde Municipal Meteorological Bureau of Fujian,Ningde,Fujian 352100,China)

机构地区：[1]福建省寿宁县气象局,福建寿宁355500 [2]福建省宁德市气象局,福建宁德352100

出　　处：《宁德师范学院学报（自然科学版）》2020年第1期100-106,共7页Journal of Ningde Normal University(Natural Science)

基　　金：福建省气象局基层科技专项项目“气候变化对闽东可利用降水资源的影响”(2017 J11)。

摘　　要：区域蒸发量变化能够反映当地气候的变化情况,研究一个地区的蒸发量变化特征,对农业产业结构调整和水资源有效利用等具有重要意义.采集1980—2014年闽东4个山区县气象历史资料,应用线性倾向估计法、Mann-Kendall突变检验法和完全相关系数法等气候统计诊断方法,分析近35 a闽东山区蒸发量的变化特征及其主要影响因素.结果表明:每10 a闽东山区年蒸发量气候倾向率为28.5 mm,呈不显著增加趋势,出现了逆“蒸发悖论”现象.春、夏、秋三季蒸发量的变化趋势与年蒸发量变化趋势相同,而冬季蒸发量却相反,呈微弱减少趋势.年蒸发量在1994年发生气候突变,突变之后比突变之前平均增加了62.4 mm/a;四季中仅春季蒸发量在1995年发生气候突变.通过蒸发量与气温、降水、日照等影响因子的相关性分析,表明最高气温、平均气温、相对湿度3个因子与年蒸发量显著相关,热力因子与蒸发量呈正相关,水分因子和动力因子与蒸发量呈负相关,气温是影响闽东山区蒸发量变化的主要因子.通过年蒸发量与主要影响因子进行多元线性回归分析,建立的预测估算模型,模型相关系数R=0.6592,预测年蒸发量准确率可达87.4%.本研究为闽东山区建立气象预测与农业生产之间的预警机制提供了参考依据.Changes in regional evaporation can reflect the changes in the local climate.The study of the changing characteristics of evaporation in a region is of great significance to the adjustment of agricultural industrial structure and the effective use of water resources.The study collected the national meteorological history data of four mountainous counties in eastern Fujian from 1980 to 2014 using the methods of climate statistical diagnosis:such as the linear tendency estimation method,the Mann-Kendall mutation test method and the total correlation coefficient method.The changing characteristics of evaporation in the past 35 years in mountainous areas and the main influencing factors were analyzed.The results showed that the 10 a average annual evaporation climate tendency rate is of 28.5 mm in the mountainous areas of eastern Fujian without showing significant increase,and the phenomenon of“evaporation paradox”appeared.The changing trend of evaporation in spring,summer and autumn is the same as that of annual evaporation,while the evaporation in winter is the opposite,showing a weak decrease trend.The annual evaporation occurred in 1994 with a climate mutation,which increased by an average of 62.4 mm/a compared with before.Only spring evaporation in the four seasons experienced a climate mutation in 1995.The correlation analysis of evaporation and temperature,precipitation,sunlight and other influencing factors has shown that the thermal factors of maximum temperature,average temperature and relative humidity are positively correlated with the annual evaporation,the moisture factor and the power factor are negatively correlated with evaporation,and the temperature is the main factor affecting the change of evaporation in the mountainous areas of eastern Fujian.Through the multi-linear regression analysis of annual evaporation and main influencing factors in mountainous areas,the predictive estimation model is established,the correlation coefficient of the model is R=0.6592,and the accuracy of the annual evapo

关 键 词：蒸发量 气候倾向率 M-K检验 完全相关 闽东山区 

分 类 号：P426.21[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]