“丝绸之路经济带”沿线国家物流效率测量研究  

Measurement study on the logistics efficiency of countries along the "Silk Road Economic Belt"

作　　者：刘德智[1] 邓晓雅 LIU Dezhi;DENG Xiaoya(Schooi of Economics and Management,Chang an University,Xi'an 710064,Shaanxi,China)

机构地区：[1]长安大学经济与管理学院,陕西西安710064

出　　处：《长安大学学报（社会科学版）》2020年第1期9-18,共10页Journal of Chang'an University(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(17BJL063);陕西省社会科学基金项目(2019S027);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(2323180001)。

摘　　要：为研究"丝绸之路经济带"沿线国家的物流活动的有效性,选取"丝绸之路经济带"沿线15个国家为样本,以世界银行公布的2010~2018年物流绩效指数为样本数据,采用DEA-Malmquist指数方法对物流全要素生产率进行动态评价。研究认为,从整体来看,15个沿线国家的整体物流效率水平发展不稳定,技术进步效率普遍偏低,综合效率的增减态势与物流全要素生产率的变化态势基本一致;从国别差异分析来看,结合历年LPI排名和物流效率值,将15个沿线国家按照物流绩效水平较高较低和全要素生产率态势较好较差划分为4个类别,得出每个类别国家的物流效率波动成因和发展趋势。研究表明,为改善中国与"丝绸之路经济带"沿线国家的物流发展水平,应打造高效海关系统、强化与沿线国家的政策交流、充分发挥投资和技术支持的优势、加强国家之间的物流信息化合作等,提升国际贸易中的交易满意度和物流效率。In order to study the effectiveness of the logistics activities of countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt, this paper selects the 15 countries along the "Silk Road Economic Belt" as research samples, uses the logistics performance index from 2010 to 2018 issued by the World Bank as the sample data, and adopts the DEA-Malmquist index method to dynamically evaluate the total factor productivity of logistics. The results show that in general, the overall logistics efficiency level of the 15 countries is unstable, the efficiency of technological progress is generally low, and the increase and decrease of comprehensive efficiency is basically consistent with the change trend of total factor productivity of logistics. In the perspective of the disparities among countries, after considering both the LPI rankings and logistics efficiency values of each calendar year, this paper divides the 15 countries into four categories based on their level of logistics performance as well as the state of their total factor productivity, and comes up with the causes and development trends of logistics efficiency fluctuations in each category of countries. In order to improve the logistics development level of China and the countries along the "Silk Road Economic Belt", it is proposed to build a highly efficient customs system, strengthen policy exchanges with said countries, give full play to the advantages in investment and technical support, enhance the logistics information cooperation among the countries, and improve the transaction satisfaction and logistics efficiency in international trade.

关 键 词：交通运输 “丝绸之路经济带” 物流效率 物流绩效指数LPI DEA-MALMQUIST指数 全要素生产率 

分 类 号：F125[经济管理—世界经济] F259.1