一个多态模型的选举行为  

Voting Behaviors in A Multistate-vote Model

作　　者：白冬雪 王鹏 霍杰 王旭明[1,2] Bai Dongxue;Wang Peng;Huo Jie;Wang Xuming(School of Physics and Electronic-Electrical Engineering,Ningxia University,Yinchuan 750021,China;Ningxia Key Laboratory of Intelligent Sensing for Desert Information,Ningxia University,Yinchuan 750021,China)

机构地区：[1]宁夏大学物理与电子电气工程学院,宁夏银川750021 [2]宁夏大学宁夏沙漠信息智能感知重点实验室,宁夏银川750021

出　　处：《宁夏大学学报（自然科学版）》2020年第1期38-44,49,共8页Journal of Ningxia University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(11665018)。

摘　　要：选举行为主要取决于选举者对事件的基本认识以及所处的环境,同时还要受竞选者的思想导向的影响.依据统计动力学的思想提出基于选举者的正负态度和代表位势的广义坐标以及其上的选举者出现概率所描述的状态转变的概率演化模型,即主方程.模拟结果显示,在确定的参数下选举结果不依赖于选民的初始分布.代表位势的广义坐标x1x2,x3和转变系数γ-,12,γ+,32的不同组合导致选举结果不同.随着转变系数的变化,出现持正负态度人数增减的平衡点和持负态度人数与中立人数增减的平衡点.前者的特征参数为γ^C-,12,后者为γ^C+,32.两个临界参数与所在的位置坐标之间分别服从幂标度律和指数标度律.不同的标度规律揭示了位势亦即选择倾向的差异大小将直接影响选举结果.模拟结果与经验一致,即竞选者加强自己的主张宣传,增强选举者的选择倾向确为一种有效做法.Vote behavior of group mainly depends on the constituent’s understandings to the event and the living environment,besides being affected by the ideological orientation of the candidates.In the paper,the master equation,defined as probability density evolution equation for describing the state of the constituents is suggested.The state is defined by attitudes(positive or negative),election intention(supporting candidate A or B or be a neutral)and the environment(the corresponding probability density of different intentions).In certain parameters,the election results depend on the combinations of parameters,election intention(x1,x2 and x3)and coefficients(γ-,12 andγ+,32)instead of the initial distribution.There is a critical parameterγ^c-,12 at which the constituent holding positive attitude is balanced with that of the neutral,and another critical parameterγ^c+,32 at which he constituents holding positive attitude is balanced with that holding negative attitude.The critical points are related to the corresponding coordinates,respectively in power and exponential manners.Therefore,from the perspective of candidate,it is an effective way to strengthen the constituents’election intention when they publicized own political propositions by themselves.

关 键 词：主方程 多态选举 选举行为 观点动力学 

分 类 号：O415[理学—理论物理]