气候变化情景下四川省猕猴桃溃疡病菌潜在地理分布模拟  

Analysis of geographical distribution of Pseudomonas syringae pv.actinidiae in Sichuan under climate change

作　　者：王茹琳 刘原 李庆[3] 沈沾红 陆兴利 赵金鹏 王闫利 王明田[1,5] WANG Rulin;LIU Yuan;LI Qing;SHEN Zhanhong;LU Xingli;ZHAO Jinpeng;WANG Yanli;WANG Mingtian(Chengdu Institute of Plateau Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, China;Sichuan Provincial Rural Economic Information Center, Chengdu 610072, China;College of Agronomy, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China;Kiwifruit Institute of Cangxi County, Guangyuan 628400, China;Sichuan Meteorological Observatory, Chengdu 610072, China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局成都高原气象研究所,高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室,成都610072 [2]四川省农村经济综合信息中心,成都610072 [3]四川农业大学农学院,成都611130 [4]四川苍溪猕猴桃研究所,广元628400 [5]四川省气象台,成都610072

出　　处：《植物保护》2020年第2期38-47,共10页Plant Protection

基　　金：高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金项目(省重实验室2018-重点-05-11,省重实验室2018-青年-31,省重实验室2018-重点-05-04);国家现代农业产业技术体系四川水果创新团队猕猴桃病虫害综合防治岗位(2013-2018)。

摘　　要：近年来,猕猴桃溃疡病在四川各猕猴桃主产区严重发生,造成严重经济损失。本研究采用MaxEnt模型分析四川省猕猴桃溃疡病菌潜在分布,并预测2030年代、2050年代、2070年代和2080年代的RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5等3种气候变化情景下适生区变化。预测结果运用ROC曲线评价模拟准确性。结果表明:所建立13个模型的训练数据和测试数据AUC(areas under curve)值均高于0.9,达到极高的精度。当前气候条件下,猕猴桃溃疡病菌在四川的高适生区主要位于成都市、德阳市、绵阳市、广元市、巴中市、达州市和雅安市,中适生区在四川21地市州均有分布。2030年代-2080年代,气候变化情景下,与当前情景相比,高适生区和低适生区区域均显著增加,中适生区区域先增加后减少,不同适生区几何中心位置和迁移规律均有所不同但总体上均向北移动。In recent years,the kiwifruit canker disease has occurred seriously in the main kiwifruit producing areas of Sichuan,and caused serious economic losses.In this study,MaxEnt(the maximum entropy model)was applied to analyze the potential geographic distribution of Pseudomonas syringae pv.actinidiae(Psa)in Sichuan.The future distribution of Psa were also predicted for 2030s,2050s,2070s and 2080s under the climate change scenarios of RCP2.6,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.The results showed that AUC(areas under curve)values of training data and test data of all models were higher than 0.9,which indicated a better forecast.Under current climate situation,the highly suitable areas for Psa were in Chengdu,Deyang,Mianyang,Guangyuan,Bazhong,Dazhou,and Ya’an,whereas the moderately suitable areas covered 21 cities of Sichuan.Under climate change scenarios,the areas of highly and least suitable areas increased significantly compared with the current scenario,while the areas of the moderately suitable areas decreased significantly.The geometric center location and migration rule of different suitable areas were different,but they all moved northward in general.

关 键 词：气候变化 潜在地理分布 MaxEnt模型 猕猴桃溃疡病菌 

分 类 号：S431.2[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]