贸易战背景下的中美能源博弈与合作  

China-US Energy Competition and Cooperation in the Context of Bilateral Trade War

作　　者：罗振兴[1] Luo Zhenxing

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院美国研究所经济室

出　　处：《现代国际关系》2020年第2期46-53,63,共9页

摘　　要：随着中美贸易战的爆发和不断升级,中美能源合作受到了较大的负面影响,合作不断减少,博弈不断加剧,中美能源关系面临全面恶化的风险.从根源上看,中美能源博弈的加剧是因为两国在能源安全观和能源利益方面存在难以弥合的分歧,而特朗普政府“能源主导”政策和对华发动贸易战则分别是中美能源博弈加剧的直接原因和导火索.目前,中美能源博弈加剧,但合作的基础仍存,尤其在能源贸易和清洁煤炭技术方面的合作具有较大的潜力.从长期看,能源转型是大势所趋,中美作为世界上最大的能源生产国、消费国和碳排放国,携手能源转型合作,共同应对气候变化是必由之路.当前,中国必须做好两手准备,一方面要采取各种举措防止中美能源博弈进一步加剧,努力使中美能源关系重返合作路径;另一方面要坚持底线思维,做好应对中美能源可能发生冲突的最坏准备.China-US energy cooperation has been negatively influenced by the escalation of trade war between China and US.As China-US energy cooperation is increasingly reduced and energy competition is becoming more intensified,Sino-US energy relations are at risk of being evolved into overall deterioration.The reason for the intensification of China-US energy competition is rooted in the difference of energy interests and ideas between both countries."Energy dominance"policy under Trump’s administration resulted in the China-US energy competition and the escalation of trade war between China and US ignited the deterioration of China-US energy relations.Although the China-US energy competition is increasing,the China-US energy cooperation still has solid foundation and huge potential especially in the energy trade and clean technology field.In the long run,the China-US cooperation in energy transition is vital for addressing the common challenges of climate change because China and the US are among the greatest countries of energy production,consumption and CO2 emission in the world.China should take all possible actions to prevent the further escalation of China-US competition and reverse the current course to cooperation,and prepare for worst-case scenario.

关 键 词：贸易战 能源 中美关系 能源博弈 能源合作 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易] F757.12[经济管理—产业经济] F426.2F471.2