空中交通管制员人为差错风险评估  

Research on Air Traffic Controller's Human Error Risk Assessment

作　　者：刘力铭 吴亚荣[1] 卞光贵 LIU Li-ming;WU Ya-rong;BIAN Guang-gui(Air Force Engineering University,Xi'an 710038,China;Unit 94676 of PLA,Shanghai 202150,China)

机构地区：[1]空军工程大学,西安710038 [2]中国人民解放军94676部队,上海202150

出　　处：《价值工程》2020年第8期121-124,共4页Value Engineering

摘　　要：本文主要通过对国内外研究现状进行分析和归纳总结,结合人为因素对管制员人为差错进行归类分析,从个体、群体、环境、组织等方面建立管制员人为差错风险评估指标体系。采用基于GeNIe软件的贝叶斯网络综合评价法,构建贝叶斯网络拓扑结构,获得各指标状态下管制员产生人为差错的概率分布。根据概率分布情况,对相应指标提出风险缓解意见,以加强对管制员人为差错风险防范,提高空中交通管制安全性。This paper mainly analyzes and summarizes the research status at home and abroad.It classifies and analyzes the controller's human error by combining human factors,and establishes the controller's human error risk assessment index system from individual,group,environment,organization and other aspects.A Bayesian network comprehensive evaluation method based on GeNIe software was used to construct a Bayesian network topology structure in order to obtain the probability distribution of human error caused by controllers in each indicator state.According to the probability distribution,this paper proposes risk mitigation opinions on corresponding indicators to strengthen the prevention of human error of controllers and improve the safety of air traffic control.

关 键 词：风险评估 风险管理 人为因素 贝叶斯网络 GENIE 

分 类 号：V355.1[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]