我国社会消费品零售额影响因素分析——基于岭回归  

Analysis on the Influential Factors of Retail Salesof Consumer Goods in China Based on Ridge Regression

作　　者：舒服华[1] SHU Fu-hua(School of Continuing Education,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430070,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学继续教育学院,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《太原师范学院学报（社会科学版）》2019年第6期44-50,共7页Journal of Taiyuan Normal University:Social Science Edition

摘　　要：由于影响我国社会消费品零售额的一些因素数据之间存在共线性,采用最小二乘法回归得到的参数不能客观反映解释变量与被解释变量的关系,岭回归可以克服这一缺点,回归的参数能准确反映自变量对因变量的影响程度。运用岭回归分析农村居民消费支出、城镇居民消费支出、人口数量、城镇化率对我国社会消费品零售额的影响程度,其从大到小依次为:农村居民消费支出、城镇居民消费支出、城镇化率、人口数量。Because of the collinearity of some factors influencing the retail sales of consumer goods in China,the parameters obtained by least square regression can not objectively reflect the relationship between the explanatory variables and the explained variables.Ridge regression can overcome this shortcoming,and the regression parameters can accurately reflect the influence of independent variables on dependent variables.This paper analyzes the influence of consumption expenditure of urban residents,consumption expenditure of rural residents,population size and urbanization rate on the retail sales of consumer goods in China by ridge regression.The results show that the factors influencing the retail sales of consumer goods in China,from largest influential to least,are consumption expenditure of rural residents,consumption expenditure of urban residents,urbanization rate and population quantity.

关 键 词：社会消费品零售额 影响因素 岭回归 农村居民消费支出 城镇居民消费支出 城镇化率 人口数量 

分 类 号：F064.1[经济管理—政治经济学]