韩国应对日本出口管制的实证分析及对我国的启示——基于博弈论的视角  

An Empirical Analysis of South Korea's Response to Japan's Export Control from the Perspective of Game Theory and Its Enlightenment to China

作　　者：罗梓超 李荣[1] 刘如 董晓晴[1] Luo Zichao;Li Rong;Liu Ru;Dong Xiaoqing(Beijing Institute of Science and Technology Information, Beijing 100044;Chinese Academy of Science and Technology for Development, Beijing 100038)

机构地区：[1]北京市科学技术情报研究所,北京100044 [2]中国科学技术发展战略研究院,北京100038

出　　处：《情报杂志》2020年第4期37-43,共7页Journal of Intelligence

摘　　要：[目的/意义]半导体作为世界贸易最重要领域,其主要市场份额一直被韩国及日本垄断。2019年,日本突然对韩国半导体产业上游关键材料实施出口管制,分析韩国应对日本贸易制裁策略,可为我国在国际贸易发展中应对不公正贸易制裁提供经验借鉴及启示。[方法/过程]在博弈论视角下,通过实证分析法研究了“日韩贸易战”相关新闻媒体报道、日本对韩实施贸易管制起韩国从企业调研、市场稳定、人才培养、科研加速4个角度的文本信息和专家解读,分析了政策计划出台的背景、实际内容及目的作用。[结果/结论]韩国通过应急策略组合,构建“政府、市场、学术三角协同对抗体系”达到的纳什平衡,确保得失在战略布局中,趋于一种竞争优势。其中在应急替代渠道、安全贸易伙伴名录、应急联动机制、产业链调控等方面的举措为我国提供了不错的经验借鉴。[Purpose/Significance]Semiconductor is the most important field of world trade,and its main market share has been monopolized by South Korea and Japan.In 2019,Japan suddenly imposed export control on upstream key materials of South Korea's semiconductor industry,and analyzing South Korea's countermeasures against Japan's trade sanction can provide experience and inspiration for China to deal with unfair trade sanctions in the development of international trade.[Method/Process]From the perspective of game theory,this paper studies the news media reports related to the"Japan and South Korea Trade War"and the text information and expert interpretation in South Korea from four perspectives of business research,market stability,talent training and acceleration of scientific research since Japan has imposed the trade control on South Korea by the means of the positive analysis,and also analyses the background,actual content and purpose of the introduction of policy and plan.[Result/Conclusion]Through the contingency strategy profile,South Korea constructs the Nash equilibrium achieved by the"combat system of triangular cooperation between government,market and academia"to ensure that gains and losses tend to a competitive advantage in the strategic layout.Among them,the measures in emergency alternative channels,the directory of secure trade partners,emergency linkage mechanism,industrial coordination,regulation and control,etc.provide the good experience reference for our country.

关 键 词：日韩贸易战 半导体 卡脖子技术 日本 韩国 

分 类 号：F204[经济管理—国民经济]