技术机会发现方法的研究现状、趋势和问题  

Technology Opportunity Discovery Methods:A State-of-the-art Review

作　　者：任海英[1,2] 王倩 Ren Haiying;Wang Qian(School of Economics and Management,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124;Research Base of Beijing Modern Manufacturing Development,Beijing 100124)

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学经济与管理学院,北京100124 [2]北京现代制造业发展研究基地,北京100124

出　　处：《情报杂志》2020年第4期51-59,共9页Journal of Intelligence

基　　金：北京市自然科学基金面上项目“基于知识网络预测和匹配的技术研发机会发现方法与评价模型”(编号:9192003)的研究成果之一。

摘　　要：[目的/意义]在世界科技竞争日趋激烈的今天,及时发现和把握有价值的技术机会是取得突破性技术创新的重要前提。当前关于技术机会发现方法的研究已取得丰富的成果,但缺乏系统化的回顾和总结。[方法/过程]建立了一个包含4个方面的技术机会发现方法的分析框架,从主体指向性和核心分析手段方面对现有技术机会发现方法进行分类,从分析流程和应用特性方面对研究现状进行了分析,然后指出研究的发展趋势和存在问题。[结果/结论]技术机会发现的数据源、知识要素结构、技术机会表示和评价都向着多样化、具体化和定量化发展,分析流程更加自动化;未来需要对各类方法持续改进和融合,并逐渐形成完整的概念框架和方法体系。而细化知识要素结构、扩大技术机会搜索空间以及为机会评价指标提供实证支持则是技术机会发现方法研究面临的几个重要技术课题。[Purpose/Significance]In the era of fierce competition in science and technology,discovering and seizing valuable technology opportunities is a prerequisite for breakthrough technological innovation.Current research has contributed greatly to methods for technology opportunity discovery(TOD),yet a systematic review is absent in this field.[Method/Process]This paper establishes an analytical framework with four aspects,in which user orientation and core analytical techniques aspects classify current TOD methods,and analytical procedure and application characteristics aspects diagnose these methods.It then summarizes the development trends and existing problems in current research.[Result/Conclusion]The development trends of TOD methods are diversification,specification and quantification of data sources,knowledge element structures,opportunity representation and opportunity evaluation,and automation of the analytical processes.In the future,continuous improvement and integration of TOD methods are needed to form a complete conceptual framework and methodology system.Furthermore,three key areas of improvement are identified,which include refining knowledge structure,expanding the search space of technology opportunities,and providing empirical support for opportunity evaluation indicators.

关 键 词：技术机会发现 机会表示 机会评价 

分 类 号：G353[文化科学—情报学]