全域视角下黄河断流再审视与现状缺水识别  

Review the Phenomenon of Yellow River Cutoff from a Whole Perspective and Identification of Current Water Shortage

作　　者：赵勇[1] 何凡[1] 何国华[1] 李海红[1] 王丽珍[1] 常奂宇 朱永楠[1] ZHAO Yong;HE Fan;HE Guohua;LI Haihong;WANG Lizhen;CHANG Huanyu;ZHU Yongnan(State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038

出　　处：《人民黄河》2020年第4期42-46,共5页Yellow River

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0401300);国家杰出青年科学基金资助项目(51625904);中国水利水电科学研究院基本科研专项(WR0145B342019)。

摘　　要：黄河干流从1999年8月迄今实现了连续20 a不断流,但干流不断流不代表流域供需水矛盾得到真正缓解,只是通过科学调控将以往的缺水矛盾由显性转为隐形、由干流转移到支流、由河道转移到陆面、由地表转移到地下、由集中性破坏转移到流域均匀破坏。随着流域经济社会的不断发展,学术界对黄河流域现状条件是否缺水、缺多少水等重大问题的认识开始出现争议。基于此,在回顾“黄河断流”现象的基础上,从全流域的视角对断流后水资源供需情势、水生态状况进行了对比分析,并基于系统可承受程度,构建了刚性缺水、弹性缺水的概念和划分标准。通过分析计算,认为现状年流域缺水总量为114.1亿m3,其中:刚性缺水量为63.1亿m3,弹性缺水量为51.0亿m3。The mainstream of the Yellow River has been continuously flowing for 20 years since August 1999.However,the continuous flow of the mainstream does not mean that the contradiction between water supply and demand in the basin has been truly alleviated.It is only through scientific regulation that the contradictions of water shortage have been changed from explicit to invisible,transfer from mainstream to the tributary,transfer from the river to the land surface,transfer from the surface to the underground and transfer from the concentrated dam age to the basin to evenly destroy.With the continuous development of the economic and social development,the academic community has begun to controversy about the lack of water of the Yellow River basin in the current conditions.Based on the review of the phenomenon of“Yellow River Cutoff”,this paper compared the water supply and demand situation and ecological status after the cutoff from the perspective of the whole basin;and built a rigid deficiency based on the degree of system affordability,the concept of water and elastic water shortage and the criteria for division.Through the analysis and calculation,it believes that the current annual water shortage is 1.14 billion m3,of which the rigid water shortage is 6.30 billion m3 and the elastic water shortage is 5.10 billion m3.

关 键 词：黄河 断流 水资源 缺水 识别 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源] TV882.1