高铁能否促进产业结构优化升级——基于准自然实验的分析  

On Whether the High-speed Railway Can Promote the Industrial Structure to Upgrade and Optimize:An Analysis Based on Quasi-natural Experiments

作　　者：罗能生[1] 萧楠芳 李建明 LUO Nengsheng;XIAO Nanfang;LI Jianming(School of Economics and Trade,Hunan University,Changsha 410006,Hunan)

机构地区：[1]湖南大学经济与贸易学院,湖南长沙410006

出　　处：《管理学刊》2020年第1期38-49,共12页Journal of Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(17ZDA081);湖南省国际经济与国际工程管理研究中心基金项目(17IEPM04,17IEPM05)。

摘　　要：高铁是我国实现经济转型的重要战略基础设施,其快速发展不仅极大地改善了我国的交通网络格局,也对我国产业结构的优化升级产生了积极影响。本文采用2006—2016年中国地级市面板数据,结合双重差分法实证检验了高铁开通对我国产业结构优化升级的影响。研究发现高铁的开通对产业结构合理化具有负向影响,但显著促进了产业结构的高度化和生态化。整体而言,高铁开通推动了我国产业结构的优化升级。此外,高铁开通对产业结构优化升级的影响还会因城市规模和所在地区的不同而具有显著差异。本文进一步通过采用社会网络分析方法测算高铁网络度中心性发现,随着节点城市交通脉络沟通能力的提升,高铁对产业结构高度化、生态化发展的促进作用增强,但对合理化影响不显著。因此,各城市应结合自身情况,充分利用高铁发展带来的机遇和条件,积极推进产业结构的优化升级,促进经济实现高质量发展。The high-speed railway is an important strategic infrastructure for China to realize the economic transformation,whose rapid development has not only greatly improved China’s transportation network structure,but also has exerted a positive influence on the optimization and upgrading of China’s industrial structure.The paper adopts the panel data of the prefecture-level cities in China from 2006 to 2016 to empirically test the impact of the operation of the high-speed railway on the optimization and upgrading of China’s industrial structure with the difference-in-differences method.The study shows the operation of the high-speed railway exerts a negative impact on the rationalization of the industrial structure,which,however,significantly promotes the industrial structure supererogation and ecologicalization.Overall,the operation of the high-speed railway has promoted the optimization and upgrading of China’s industrial structure.In addition,the impacts of the operation of the high-speed railway on the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure vary significantly depending on the size and region of the cities.The paper further calculates the centrality of the high-speed rail network with the social network analysis method,which shows that with the improvement of the communication capacity of the traffic venation in the node cities,the high-speed railway more significantly promotes the development of the industrial structure supererogation and ecologicalization,but less significantly on the rationalization.Therefore,all cities should accordingly take full advantage of the opportunities and conditions created by the development of the high-speed railway to promote the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure and advance the realization of the high-quality development of the economy.

关 键 词：高铁 产业结构高度化 产业结构合理化 产业结构生态化 双重差分法 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学]