我国林木产品进口贸易依存度的国际比较研究  

The International Contrastive Study of Chinese Import Dependence of Forestry Products

作　　者：王若舟 蒋彦庆 WANG Ruo-zhou;JIANG Yan-qing(Shool of Economics and Finance,Shanghai International Studies University,Shanghai 201620)

机构地区：[1]上海外国语大学国际金融贸易学院,上海201620

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2020年第7期244-249,共6页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：上外国语大学第三届导师引领计划项目(41003643)。

摘　　要：为了探究我国林木产品进口贸易依存度实际情况并探讨对于原木资源的保护和林业产业的发展,通过搜集和整理2002-2016年的相关数据,利用原木折算法来构建木材资源的进口贸易依存度,对我国和美国、欧盟等10个世界主要林产品经济体的林产品进口依存度进行比较;利用因子分析法,引入森林覆盖率、人均GDP等10个变量,进一步分析不同国家林木产品进口依存度的差异。结果表明,我国的林业进口贸易依存度(平均为27.23%)高于世界平均水平(约为20%左右),低于欧盟平均水平(36.43%)和日本平均水平(67.34%),与中国原木产量在同一水平的国家如俄罗斯(3.52%)、加拿大(11.85%)、巴西(1.61%)的林木产品进口依存度远低于中国,说明我国对于木材的国际依赖程度仍然在可控范围内,目前我国亟需解决的是木材资源的长期供求缺口和林业产业可持续发展问题。最后,结合当前的环境以及原木采伐政策提出几点建议,以期能够助力我国林业产业健康发展。Using log conversion method to measure the import dependence of timber products and resources based on related data,we made a contrastive study of China and other primary economies around the world such as the United States,the EU etc.as to the import dependence of timber products and uses factor analysis method including forest coverage rate,real GDP per capital etc totally 10 factors for a further exploration to explain facts and to research the protection of roundwood resources and the development of forestry industries.The results showed that although higher than the average import dependence of timber products in the world that is about 20%,the import dependence of China is average 27.23%which is lower than EU(average 36.43%)and Japan(average 67.43%)while these countries whose log production is at the same level of China such as Russia(3.52%),Canada(11.85%)and Brazil(1.61%)are clearly lower than China.The results showed the import dependence of China is still under the control and now it is imperative for China to take action to eliminate the gap between supply and demand of timber resources in the long run and to emphasize the sustainable development of forestry industries.In the end,combined with current environment and the policy of roundwood cutting,some measures are suggested for sake of the healthy development of forestry industries of China.

关 键 词：林木产品 进口贸易依存度 因子分析 国际比较 

分 类 号：S-9[农业科学]