基础设施建设与空间溢出关系的变化机制分析  

Analysis on the spatial spillover mechanism change induced by infrastructure construction

作　　者：王斌[1] 傅强[1] WANG Bin;FU Qiang(School of Economics and Business Administration,Chongqing University,Chongqing 40044,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆大学经济与工商管理学院,重庆400044

出　　处：《管理工程学报》2020年第1期127-135,共9页Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management

基　　金：国家教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(13YJA630018)。

摘　　要：本文以电网拓扑结构变化对区域能源强度的影响为例,揭示区域基础设施连接紧密程度对空间相关性的影响和其变化的内在机理。根据1998-2014年中国30个省份高压电网建设的时序顺序与拓扑结构构建空间权重矩阵,实现了基础设施动态建设与空间权重矩阵常数元素赋值的对应。使用SDM面板模型,并采用内生变量的滞后一期值代替原变量克服内生性偏误,得到了更为稳健的结果。研究发现:①考虑电网拓扑结构的空间溢出效应后,电力占比与要素结构提升对能源强度改善的影响得以体现,对外贸易的“污染天堂”效应被发现。②《大气污染防治计划》配套的12条高压电力线路改变了中国各省份能源强度的空间同质性,使得电力占比、产业结构、R&D研发水平对能源强度的影响变大;人均FDI存量、产权结构、要素结构、城市化率对能源强度的影响变小。③基于电网拓扑结构的空间权重矩阵能反映区域能源强度地理空间邻接关系的主要信息,通过强化和调整各省间的电网拓扑结构能够改变其空间溢出关系,促进政策目标的实现。此方法实现了省间基础设施连接紧密程度与经济指标空间相关性机理分析的计量方法应用创新。The interconnection of infrastructure such as transportation,energy,and communication among Chinese provinces is used to promote economic development effectively.But there is a lack of powerful quantitative methods to evaluate the effect of the intensity of infrastructure interconnection on various economic indicators.The paper explored the spatial correlation affected by infrastructure construction by considering the regional energy intensity affected by power topology structure.Electric power is considered to be of high quality,efficient energy.Improving the proportion of electricity in energy consumption can improve regional energy efficiency.The State Grid Corp uses the opportunity to implement the strategy of UHV power grid,by connecting the western region of China with rich energy resources with the eastern region with high load via the UHV power grid.Thus,the power substitution policy in the eastern region has a solid infrastructure assurance.However,it is unclear about how to evaluate the effect one the regional energy efficiency through power ratio promotion coming from inter-provincial high voltage power grid construction.It is also unclear about the mechanism of spatial correlation of energy intensity through inter-provincial high voltage transmission channel change to improve energy efficiency.These are the main problems that have to be solved urgently.Firstly,A new spatial weight matrix confirmation method based on 1998-2014 Chinese high voltage power grid’s topology construction sequence and its topological structure is presented to reflect the infrastructure construction effect.Secondly,spatial Dubin panel model is adapted to overcome the ignored variables bias error,and the one-period lag value of the endogenous variable is used to control the endogeneity bias,the regression results are more robust.Thirdly,the counterfactual econometric method was adopted to analyze the effect on regional energy intensity caused by the 12 high voltage power lines that support the measures of"Air pollution preven

关 键 词：电网拓扑结构 空间权重矩阵 空间杜宾模型 能源强度 

分 类 号：F206[经济管理—国民经济]