考虑天气影响的配电信息物理系统可靠性评估  

Reliability Evaluation of Cyber-physical Distribution Network Considering the Impact of Weather Conditions

作　　者：吴英俊 范婷婷[2] 徐昊 倪明[3] WU Yingjun;FAN Tingting;XU Hao;NI Ming(The College of Energy and Electrical Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China;The College of Electrical Engineering,Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications,Nanjing 210046,China;NARI Group Corporation(State Grid Electric Power Research Institute),Nanjing 211106,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学能源与电气学院,江苏南京211100 [2]南京邮电大学电气工程系,江苏南京210046 [3]南瑞集团有限公司(国网电力科学研究院有限公司),江苏南京211106

出　　处：《中国电力》2020年第4期59-68,共10页Electric Power

基　　金：国家电网公司总部科技项目(针对网络攻击的电网信息物理系统协同运行态势感知与主动防御方法研究);国家自然科学基金资助项目(51807051)。

摘　　要：电力与通信深度融合是配电网发展的趋势,而天气又是影响配电网可靠性最主要的要素之一,研究评估考虑天气影响的配电信息物理系统可靠性很有必要。首先,选取对电力元件故障和通信元件故障影响最大的天气要素,并对天气要素进行区间划分,构建适合分析电力元件故障和通信元件故障的天气状态模型;其次,结合配电网历史故障数据和历史天气数据,构建以天气状态为变量的电力元件故障概率模型和通信元件故障概率模型;接着,针对通信元件故障使得监视和控制失效而造成的后果评估,给出配电网失负荷量化分析方法;然后,综合考虑电力元件和通信元件故障,提出基于蒙特卡洛方法的配电网信息物理系统可靠性评方法;最后,在改进的IEEE 33节点测试系统进行仿真测试,验证了所提算法的可行性和有效性。The deep integration of power and communication is the development trend of distribution network,and weather is one of the most important factors affecting the reliability of the distribution network.Therefore,it is necessary to consider the influence of weather in studying and evaluating the reliability of the distribution cyber-physical system.First,the weather factors that have the greatest impact on power component faults and communication component faults are selected,and divided into intervals to build a weather state model suitable for analyzing power component faults and communication component faults.Second,based on the historical fault data and historical weather data,the power component failure probability model and communication component failure probability model are established with weather conditions as variables.Third,for the consequence evaluation of monitoring and control failure caused by communication component faults,a load loss quantification analysis method is given.And then,considering the faults of power components and communication components,a reliability assessment method is proposed for the distribution cyber-physical system based on Monte Carlo method.Finally,simulations were performed on the improved IEEE 33-node test system,which has verified the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.

关 键 词：电网信息物理系统 天气状态模型 电力元件 监视元件 控制元件 可靠性评估 

分 类 号：TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]