货币政策、汇率对区域就业的影响研究——基于半参数全局向量自回归模型  

Research on the Impact of Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate on Regional Employment——Based on Semi-parametric Global Vector Autoregressive Model

作　　者：邱丽萍 叶阿忠 Qiu Liping;Ye Azhong(School of Economics and Management Fuzhou University,Fuzhou Fujian 350100,China)

机构地区：[1]福州大学经济与管理学院,福建福州350100

出　　处：《北京化工大学学报（社会科学版）》2020年第1期29-34,共6页Journal of Beijing University of Chemical Technology(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“半参数全局向量自回归模型的理论研究及其应用”(71171057)。

摘　　要：稳定和促进就业是经济转型期宏观政策调控的优先目标。采用1978-2017年中国省际面板数据,考虑变量的空间关联性和汇率就业的非线性关系,构建半参数全局向量自回归模型(SGVAR),分析数量型和价格型货币政策对就业的区域效应,以及汇率变动对就业的非线性影响。结果表明:扩张的数量型货币政策对就业有促进作用,但区域差别较小;紧缩的价格型货币政策对就业有抑制作用,且存在显著的区域异质性,东部最敏感,中部次之,西部最弱;汇率变动对就业为非线性影响,存在门槛效应和区域效应,东中部汇率的就业弹性较高。在货币政策从数量型为主转向价格型为主的背景下,建议采用以“就业目标制”为导向的区域货币政策。Stabilizing and promoting employment is a priority goal of macroeconomic policy regulation during economic transition.Using the provincial panel data from 1978 to 2017,considering the spatial correlation of variables and the exchange-employment non-linear relationship,a semi-parametric global vector autoregressive model(SGVAR)was constructed to analyze the regional effect of quantitative and price monetary policies on employment and the non-linear effect of exchange rate movements on employment.The results show that:the expansionary quantitative monetary policy has a positive effect on employment,but the regional difference is smaller;the tight price monetary policy has a restraining effect on employment,and there is a significant regional heterogeneity,with the east area being the most sensitive,the middle area being moderate and the west area being the weakest;the exchange rate change has a non-linear effect on employment,that is,the threshold effect and the regional effect,with the employment elasticities of the east and middle exchange rates being higher.Under the context of monetary policy transformation from quantitative to price-based,it is recommended to adopt a regionalized monetary policy oriented by the“employment target system”.

关 键 词：货币政策 汇率 就业 半参数 SGVAR 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学]