基于可公度性理论的干旱预测方法研究  

Research on Drought Prediction Method Based on the Theory of Commensurability

作　　者：李松旌 樊向阳[1,3,4] 景若瑶 胡超[1,3,4] 王和洲[1] 黄仲冬[1] LI Songjing;FAN Xiangyang;JING Ruoyao;HU Chao;WANG Hezhou;HUANG Zhongdong(Farmland Irrigation Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Xinxiang 453002,China;Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;Key Laboratory of High-efficient and Safe Utilization of Agriculture Water Resources,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Xinxiang 453002,China;Agricultural Water Soil Environmental Field Research Station of Xinxiang,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Xinxiang 453002,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农田灌溉研究所,河南新乡453002 [2]中国农业科学院研究生院,北京100081 [3]中国农业科学院农业水资源高效安全利用重点开放实验室,河南新乡453002 [4]中国农业科学院新乡农业水土环境野外科学观测试验站,河南新乡453002

出　　处：《灌溉排水学报》2020年第2期107-113,137,共8页Journal of Irrigation and Drainage

基　　金：“十三五”重点研发计划课题(2017YFD0800605)。

摘　　要：【目的】为可公度性理论在干旱预测预警领域的拓展和应用提供依据。【方法】以河南省为例,并依据该省1961―2016年历史干旱数据,基于可公度性理论,采用层次分析法和MATLAB、SAS软件进行干旱发生年份预测,并与前人预测结果及蝴蝶结构图预测结果进行对比验证。【结果】基于可公度性理论的三元、四元和五元可公度预测模型,预测2014年河南省发生严重干旱的频数最高,即发生干旱可能性最大,这与实际相符;基于上述数据,预测河南省2030年前发生严重干旱的年份为2023年,这与蝴蝶结构图预测结果相符,并与前人研究结果一致。【结论】该方法用于区域性干旱发生年份的预测时具有较强的实用性;层次分析法及MATLAB、SAS软件的应用,大大提高了模型计算速度,并降低了主观因素对预测结果判别的人为影响,提高了计算结果的准确程度。【 Objective 】 This study aimed to provide a basis for the expansion and application of the commensurability theory in the field of drought prediction and early warning.【Method】Based on the historical drought data of Henan province from 1961 to 2016, this paper adopted analytic hierarchy process(AHP), MATLAB and SAS software to predict the year of drought occurrence, which was compared with the prediction results of the predecessors and the prediction results of the Butterfly structure diagram.【Result】Based on the commensurability theory of the ternary, quaternary and quintuple prediction models, it was predicted that the highest frequency of severe drought in Henan Province in 2014, that is, the probability of occurrence of drought is the highest, which is consistent with the actual situation. Based on the above data, it is predicted that the year of severe drought in Henan Province before 2030 is 2023, which is consistent with the prediction of the Butterfly structure diagram and the results of previous studies. 【Conclusion】The method has strong practicability when predicting the year of occurrence of regional drought. The application of AHP, MATLAB and SAS greatly improves the calculation speed of the model, reduces the artificial influence of subjective factors on the prediction results, and improves the accuracy of the calculation results.

关 键 词：可公度性理论 干旱预测 层次分析法 蝴蝶结构图 

分 类 号：S166[农业科学—农业气象学] S421[农业科学—农业基础科学]