基于负荷增长不确定性方法的网架负载能力评估  

Evaluation of grid load capacity based on the uncertainty analysis of load growth

作　　者：兰洲 沈志恒 朱虹 史立勤 鲍威[3] LAN Zhou;SHEN Zhi-heng;ZHU Hong(State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Limited Company Economic and Technology Research Institute,Hangzhou 310001,China;Hangzhou WR Power Technology Co.,Ltd,Hangzhou 310012,China)

机构地区：[1]国网浙江省电力有限公司经济技术研究院,浙江杭州310001 [2]杭州沃瑞电力科技有限公司,浙江杭州310012 [3]浙江大学电气工程学院,浙江杭州310027

出　　处：《能源工程》2020年第1期6-11,16,共7页Energy Engineering

基　　金：国网浙江省电力有限公司科技项目(5211JY16000W)。

摘　　要：为了更准确地评估负荷的不确定增长对网架负载能力带来的影响,将所研究电网按经济发展水平划分为4个区域,然后采用蒙特卡洛法对经济发展水平不同区域的负荷进行抽样;分析了每个区域的负荷增长率,得到不同的负荷增长方式,从而对网架负载裕度进行评估;通过引入线路负载率约束,使得规划后的网架能够应对未来小幅度、短时间的不确定性的负荷波动;最后以某省为例对500 kV线路与主变进行最大负载率的计算得到具有最大负载率的500 kV线路与主变。计算结果表明与传统分析方法相比,所述方法能够更加精确地对网架负载能力进行评估。In order to more accurately assess the impact of uncertain load growth on the load capacity of the grid,in this paper,the grid is first divided into four regions according to the level of economic development of grid,and then Monte Carlo method is applied to sample the loads of different regions.The load growth rate of each region is comprehensively analyzed and different load growth modes are obtainedso as to evaluate the load margin of the grid.By introducing line load rate constraints,the planned grid can cope with small and short-term uncertain load fluctuations in the future.Finally,taking Zhejiang Province as an example,the maximum load rate of 500 kV lines and main transformers are calculated,and the 500 kV lines and main transformers with the maximum load rate are obtained.Comparing with the traditional analysis technique,the calculation results show that the method described in this paper can evaluate the load capacity of the grid more accurately.

关 键 词：负荷增长 负载率 不同区域 蒙特卡洛法抽样 风险评估 不确定性 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]