知识产权保护、知识产权贸易壁垒和中美贸易三者关系研究——基于向量自回归与格兰杰因果关系检验  

A Study on the Relationship between Intellectual Property Protection,Intellectual Property Trade Barriers and Sino-US Trade: Based on Vector Autoregression and Granger Causality Test

作　　者：曹璋 李伟 陈一超 Cao Zhang;Li Wei;Chen Yichao

机构地区：[1]浙江财经大学法学院 [2]浙江财经大学金融学院

出　　处：《宏观经济研究》2020年第2期92-101,共10页Macroeconomics

摘　　要：本文利用1995-2016年间中国知识产权保护强度指数、中国知识产权的"337调查"数量以及中美贸易差额,构建VAR模型。并在此基础上,进行格兰杰因果关系检验,以揭示中国知识产权保护强度指数是中美贸易差额的格兰杰原因,中美贸易差额是涉及中国知识产权"337调查"数量的格兰杰原因。知识产权保护、知识产权贸易壁垒以及中美贸易三者中任一项的变化都将受其自身以及其余两项过去行为的影响,这对中美知识产权和贸易关系的预测与决策具有重大借鉴意义。由此也进一步表明,在现有中美贸易结构下,中国应该不断提高自身知识产权保护综合实力,提升对外贸易水平,以应对美国知识产权贸易壁垒。This paper uses China’s Intellectual Property Protection Intensity Index from 1995 to 2016, the number of ‘337 surveys’ on China’s intellectual property, and the Sino-US trade balance to construct a VAR model. And on this basis, Granger causality test is conducted to reveal that China’s Intellectual Property Protection Intensity Index is the Granger cause of Sino-US trade balance, and Sino-US trade balance is the Granger cause for the number of ‘337 surveys’ on China’s intellectual property. Changes in any one of intellectual property protection, intellectual property trade barriers, and Sino-US trade will be affected by itself and the two remaining past actions. This is of great significance for the prediction and decision-making on Sino-US intellectual property and trade relations. This also further shows that under the current Sino-US trade structure, China should continue to improve its comprehensive strength in intellectual property protection and foreign trade to cope with trade barriers to intellectual property from U.S..

关 键 词：知识产权 贸易壁垒 VAR模型 格兰杰因果关系检验 

分 类 号：F204[经济管理—国民经济] F752.67F757.12