中国对“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资的贸易效应研究——基于制度距离差异的实证分析  

A Study on the Trade Effects of China’s Direct Investment in‘the Belt and Road’Countries:An Empirical Analysis Based on the Difference of Institutional Distance

作　　者：谢娜[1,2] Xie Na

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学工商管理学院 [2]广东外语外贸大学英语教育学院

出　　处：《宏观经济研究》2020年第2期112-130,164,共20页Macroeconomics

基　　金：湖北省技术创新专项(软科学研究类)课题“湖北自贸区建设背景下国际人才培养模式创新研究”(项目编号:2018ADC108)的资助。

摘　　要：随着"一带一路"倡议的不断推进,中国"走出去"规划逐步稳健发展。已有研究文献表明,制度距离差异将直接影响直接投资的贸易效应。基于此,本文首先采用重新标度的距离聚类完成"一带一路"沿线国家的制度距离差异的三大维度划分分析,然后基于贸易引力全对数模型完成不同维度下的制度距离对直接投资的进口与出口贸易效应分析。结果表明:(1)全样本与制度距离差异小的国家呈现出口创造效应;制度距离差异中等、大的国家呈现短期替代、长期创造效应。(2)制度距离差异中等国家呈现进口创造效应;全样本、制度距离差异小、大的国家呈现短期替代、长期创造效应。最后根据本文实证结果、结合研究国家所处的地理空间归属,从而提出空间差异化投资策略。With the continuous advancement of‘the Belt and Road’initiative,China’s‘going out’plan has gradually developed steadily.Existing research literatures show that the difference in institutional distance will directly affect the trade effect of direct investment.Based on this,this article first uses re-scaled distance clustering to complete the three dimensions of the institutional distance difference of the countries along‘the Belt and Road’,and then based on the full logarithmic model of trade gravity,the analysis of the effect of institutional distance on the import and export trade of direct investment in different dimensions is completed.The results show that:(1)Countries with small differences in the distance between the entire sample and the system show export creation effects;countries with medium and large differences in the system distance show short-term substitution and long-term creation effects.(2)Countries with medium differences in institutional distance show import creation effects;countries with large sample sizes and small differences in institutional distance show short-term substitution and long-term creation effects.Finally,based on the empirical results of this paper,combined with the study of the country’s geographical spatial ownership,a spatially differentiated investment strategy is proposed.

关 键 词：一带一路 对外贸易 制度距离 贸易效应 

分 类 号：F125[经济管理—世界经济] F752.7