“一带一路”倡议下江苏进出口贸易额的时空演变及影响因素分析  

The Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Jiangsu’s Import and Export Trade under the “One Belt and One Road” Initiative and Analysis of the Influencing Factors

作　　者：王岩岩 张仲伍 陈颖 WANG Yan-yan;ZHANG Zhong-wu;CHEN Ying(College of Geographical Science,Shanxi Normal University,Linfen 041000,Shanxi,China)

机构地区：[1]山西师范大学地理科学学院,山西临汾041000

出　　处：《山西师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2020年第1期112-118,共7页Journal of Shanxi Normal University(Natural Science Edition)

摘　　要：在"一带一路"背景下,通过江苏统计年鉴发布的进出口贸易额及其他相关数据,针对2004年~2016年江苏13个地市进出口贸易额进行分析,指出其进出口贸易额的时空演变规律,并探讨了各地市社会消费品零售额空间分布的影响因素,为江苏进出口贸易的发展提供参考.研究表明:①江苏进出口贸易总额与其增长率的变化曲线不一致.江苏进出口贸易总额呈波动上升趋势,而增长率呈波动下降的趋势,且在2009年出现波谷;②进出口贸易额在各地市的空间分布不均匀,且苏南地区地市排名相对靠前;③全球经济的波动、汇率的波动、贸易摩擦、国家政策与法规的变化和各地市需求的不同等5个不能量化的因素对江苏进出口贸易额的时空演变产生了重要影响;④各地市进出口贸易额分布受GDP、工业生产总值、实际使用外资、外资依存度、固定投资额、邮电业务量和公路货运量的影响,但影响程度存在差异.Under the"One Belt and One Road"background,through the import and export trade volume and other relevant data released by the Jiangsu Statistical Yearbook,the import and export volume of 13 cities in Jiangsu province from 2004 to 2016 was analyzed,and the spatial-temporal evolution of import and export trade volume was pointed out.And discussed the influence factors of the spatial distribution of social consumer goods retail sales in various cities,and provided reference for the development of Jiangsu's import and export trade.The research shows that:①The change curve of Jiangsu*s total import and export trade and its growth rate are in?consistent.The total volume of import and export trade in Jiangsu showed a rising trend,while the growth rate showed a downward trend,and there was a trough in 2009.②The volume of import and export trade is unevenly distributed in cities around the country,and the cities and towns in southern Jiangsu are ranked relatively high.③Five factors that cannot be quantified,such as fluctuations in the global economy,exchange rate fluctuations,trade frictions,changes in national policies and regulations,and differences in demand across cities,have had an important impact on the temporal and spatial evolution of Jiangsu's import and export trade volume.④The distribution of import and export trade in various cities is affected by GDP,industrial gross value,actual use of foreign capital,foreign capital dependence,fixed investment,post and telecommunication traffic and road freight,but the degree of influence varies.

关 键 词：“一带一路” 进出口贸易 空间分布 影响因素 江苏 

分 类 号：F592.7[经济管理—旅游管理]