2020年新冠疫情对世界和中国宏观经济的影响  

The Impact of Novel Coronavirus on Macro-economy in 2020

作　　者：李霞[1] 赵小辉[1] 傅培瑜 任佳宁 Li Xia;Zhao Xiaohui;Fu Peiyu;Ren Jianing(Sinopec Economics&Development Research Institute,Beijing 100029,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油化工集团公司经济技术研究院,北京100029

出　　处：《当代石油石化》2020年第3期9-13,共5页Petroleum & Petrochemical Today

摘　　要：2020年新冠疫情与全球贸易紧张局势产生叠加影响,严重冲击了一季度中国和世界经济。世界经济面临金融危机以来最大的危险,预计2020年经济增速将放缓至2.0%~2.2%。受疫情影响,中国一季度消费、工业生产等领域受到严重冲击,国家加大宏观政策调节力度,预计全年经济增速在4%左右。疫情不会改变中国经济长期向好、高质量增长的基本面,但目前海外疫情发展的不确定性较大,对中国经济带来不利影响恐超预期。The novel coronavirus and trade tensions are producing superposition impacts,causing a huge shock to the Chinese and world economies in the first quarter of 2020.The world economy is facing the biggest danger since 2008 financial crisis,with growth rate expected to slow to 2.0%~2.2%in 2020.Hit hard by the epidemic outbreak,China's consumption,industrial production and other sectors have suffered a severe hurt in the first quarter,and the government has stepped up efforts to adjust macro policies,with economic growth rate likely dropping to around 4%in 2020.The epidemic will not change the fundamentals China's long-term high-quality economic growth.But the rapid spread of the epidemic overseas is now a big uncertainty,which could have a bigger impact on the Chinese economy than expected.

关 键 词：疫情 世界经济 中国经济 经济政策 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]