格局重构、转型发展中的中国炼油  

China's Oil Refining Industry in Restructuring and Transformation

作　　者：乞孟迪 柯晓明[1] 张硕[1] 李振光[1] Qi Mengdi;Ke Xiaoming;Zhang Shuo;Li Zhenguang(Sinopec Economics&Development Research Institute,Beijing 100029,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油化工集团公司经济技术研究院,北京100029

出　　处：《当代石油石化》2020年第3期14-22,38,共10页Petroleum & Petrochemical Today

摘　　要：2019年,亚太引领全球炼油能力增长为近十年最高。新加坡、美湾和鹿特丹三地炼油毛利呈现分化。国内炼油工业开启了新一轮投资热潮,2019年炼油产能达8.8亿吨/年,成品油供大于求趋势加剧。2020年,我国炼油工业市场化改革稳步推进,行业主体迈向全面竞争,炼油产能增加2450万吨/年至9.05亿吨/年。IMO新政实施下,国内出口退税政策获得突破,低硫船燃产量将有较大增长。燃料乙醇发展受原料制约,全覆盖难以实现。经济下行,有效购车人群保有量增长空间有限,汽车工业调整期将延续2~4年。2020年成品油终端消费增速降至2.2%,成品油出口量增至5900万吨。In 2019,the Asia-Pacific region led global refining capacity growth to a new high in recent ten years,and the refining margins in Singapore,USGC and NWE charted divergent trends.China's refining industry started a new round of investment boom,with the total refining capacity surging to 880 million tons/year and refined products oversupply intensified further.In 2020,China's refining industry will continue to push for the market-oriented reform,stepping towards full market competition for all players,and will see refining capacity increase by 24.5 million tons/year to 905 million tons/year.Under the implementation of IMO new rules,China's export tax rebate policy will get a new breakthrough,and VLSFO output will increase greatly.The nationwide rollout of E10 ethanol gasoline seems difficult due to constraints in feedstock availability.With the economic downturn in China,there is limited space for the growth of real vehicle buyers,so the adjustment period of vehicle sector will last for 2~4 years.The growth rate of refined products end-use consumption will drop to 2.2%,and the export volume of refined products will increase to 59 million tons in 2020.

关 键 词：炼油 成品油 毛利 产能 转型发展 

分 类 号：F426.72[经济管理—产业经济]