基于复杂适应理论的北极航线体系构建  

Construction of Arctic Route System Based on Complex Adaptation Theory

作　　者：丁超君 李振福 DING Chao-jun;LI Zhen-fu(College of Transportation Engineering,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,China;Collaborative Innovation Center for Transport Studies,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,China)

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学交通运输工程学院,辽宁大连116026 [2]大连海事大学综合交通运输协同创新中心,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《系统工程》2020年第2期87-97,共11页Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目(13&ZD170);国家高技术研究发展计划项目(2016YFC142706);国家自然科学基金重点项目(71831002);教育部长江学者和创新团队发展计划项目(IRT_17R13);大连海事大学“十三五”重点科研项目(3132016361);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(3132019501,3132019502)。

摘　　要：从系统整体性研究北极航线对世界海运网络的影响,提出了北极航线体系的概念,并分析了北极航线体系的复杂适应性,以及北极航线体系的内部结构。通过构建北极航线体系下的主体港口、航线、承运人、托运人、环境模型,并利用Swarm平台对北极航线体系的2016~2035年的演化进行仿真。此外仿真结果体现了北极航线体系主体行为的变化特征。再将北极航线演化结果绘制成集装箱拓扑结构网络图,分析其中不同港口在北极航线体系中的中心地位。最后通过比较北极航线体系与传统航线体系,将北极航线体系中的港口划分为4个类别,并针对中国港口提出了不同类别港口的发展建议。From the holistic study of the impact of the Arctic route on the world shipping network,the concept of the Arctic route system is proposed,and the complex adaptability of the Arctic route system and the internal structure of the Arctic route system arc analyzed.Firstly,the main port,route,carrier,shipper and environment model under the Arctic route system arc constructed,and the Swarm platform is used to simulate the evolution of the Arctic route system from2016 to 2035.In addition,the simulation results reflect the changing characteristics of the main body behavior of the Arctic route system.Then the evolution results of the Arctic route arc drawn into a network diagram of the container topology,and the central position of the different ports in the Arctic route system is analyzed.Finally,by comparing the arctic shipping system with the traditional shipping system,the ports in the arctic shipping system arc divided into four categories.Accordingly,some suggestions on the development of different types of ports are put forward.

关 键 词：复杂适应理论 北极航线体系 多主体模型 SWARM仿真 网络中心性 

分 类 号：U695[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]