珠海市台风及其次生风暴潮特征分析与评估  

ANALYSIS AND ASSESSMENT OF THE CHARACTERISTICS OF TYPHOON INDUCED STORM SURGE IN ZHUHAI

作　　者：庞古乾 黄玉明 何健[1] 李文媛[1] 张柳红 PANG Gu-qian;HUANG Yu-ming;HE Jian;LI Wen-yuan;ZHANG Liu-hong(Climate Center of Guangdong Province,Guangzhou 510641,China;Guangdong Meteorological Public Service Center,Guangzhou 510641,China)

机构地区：[1]广东省气候中心,广东广州510641 [2]广东省气象公共服务中心,广东广州510641

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2020年第1期42-50,共9页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

基　　金：广东省自然科学基金-重大基础研究培育资助项目(2015A030308014);广东省科技计划项目(2019A070716007)共同资助。

摘　　要：基于19612018年广东省珠海市气象观测资料以及珠海三灶站19642018年逐日潮位数据,分别对珠海市台风及风暴潮进行特征分析和频率计算。通过构建台风数据集,计算得到影响珠海的可能最强台风的中心气压、移动速度、最大风速半径以及可能移动路径,并模拟该台风引起的珠海三灶站的最高潮位和极值增水,最后通过1713号台风“天鸽”和1822号台风“山竹”对模拟结果进行了验证,验证结果与计算方案下强台风级别在台山登陆引起的计算结果一致。Based on the meteorological observation data in Zhuhai from 1961 to 2018 and tide data of Sanzao in Zhuhai from 1964 to 2018,we anayzed the characteristics and calculated the frequency of typhoon and storm surge in Zhuhai.Through building the typhoon data set,we calculated the central pressure,moving speed,maximum wind radius and possible path of the possible strongest typhoon in Zhuhai.We simulated the highest tide level and maximum storm surges of Sanzao in Zhuhai by the possible strongest typhoon.We verified the simulation with the data of Typhoon No.1713(HATO)and No.1822(MANGKHUT),and it was proved that the simulation results are consistent with the calculated data of strong typhoon landed in Taishan.

关 键 词：台风 风暴潮 极值分析 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]