我国桑园时空格局演变特征及驱动机制研究  

Spatial Oattern Evolvement Characteristics and Their Driving Mechanism of Chinese Mulberry Plantation

作　　者：王谢[1,2] 杨德乾 郭海霞 张建华[1,2] 曾其国[3] WANG Xie;YANG De-qian;GUO Hai-xia;ZHANG Jian-hua;ZENG Qi-guo(Soil and Fertilizer Research Institute,Sichuan Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Sichuan Chengdu 610066,China;Key Laboratory of Agricultural Environment of Southwest China,Ministry of Agriculture,Sichuan Chengdu 610066,China;Chengdu Normal University,Sichuan Chengdu 611130,China)

机构地区：[1]四川省农业科学院土壤肥料研究所,四川成都610066 [2]农业农村部西南山地农业环境重点实验室,四川成都610066 [3]成都师范学院,四川成都611130

出　　处：《西南农业学报》2020年第2期381-388,共8页Southwest China Journal of Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：现代农业产业技术体系建设专项(CARS-18)。

摘　　要：【目的】为进一步揭示"东桑西移"项目在推进我国蚕桑产业供给侧结构性改革中的作用。【方法】本研究以"东桑西移"项目实施前后10年(1996-2016年)各省桑园面积为研究对象,结合1999-2016年各省的自然、社会、经济等数据,通过空间分析及数理统计,探索了我国桑园面积变化的空间结构特征及其驱动力。【结果】①2006年开始实施"东桑西移"项目后,我国东部桑园面积呈线性减少,平均每年减少16482.81 hm^2,十年间的动态度为-4.94%;西部桑园面积呈线性增加,年约增加桑园面积7924.69 hm^2,十年间的动态度为1.96%。②空间重心转移模型显示,我国桑园面积空间分布重心在1996-2016年间由北向南移动的整个过程,且明显具有向西南偏移的趋势。③主成分分析-逐步回归分析模型(Y=6.670x_1-6.977x_6+134.667x_7-1.692x_(12))明确指出,自然、人口和经济三大类4种驱动因子对我国桑园面积(Y)的时空变化有显著的指示作用。其中,自然类驱动因子主要指降雨量;人口类驱动因子主要包括15~64岁人口数量和65岁及以上人口数量两个指标,经济类驱动因子主要是指第二产业生产总值。【结论】综上可知,在政策引导、自然条件、人口结构和经济发展的复合驱动下,我国桑园面积时空格局变迁明显。【Objective】The present paper aimed to study how the project named‘Sericulture Moving from East to West’affect the supply-side structural reform of the sericulture industry.【Method】the changes of mulberry fields in different provinces 10 years before and after the implementation of the policy(from 1996 to 2016)were analyzed.Also,combined with natural,social,economic data from 1999 to 2016,this paper explored spatial structure characteristics and driven forces of mulberry area changes using spatial analysis and mathematical statis-tics.【Result】(i)The area of mulberry fields in the eastern China decreased linearly,16482.81 ha every year,with-4.94%since dy-namic degree,since 2006 the year implementing moving sericulture production area from the east to west policy,while the area of mulberry fields increased linearly,with 7924.69 ha every year and 1.96%dynamic degree in ten years;(ii)The spatial model revealed that from 1996 to 2016,the center of mulberry field transferred from north to south,with a clear trend of diverting to the southwestern part of China;(iii)Principal component analysis and stepwise regression analysis demonstrated that natural,population and economy,as three major driv-ing forces had significant impact on the area change of mulberry fields.Here,natural factor was the annual rainfall.Population factor includ-ed the number of people aged from 15 to 64,and the number of people old than 65.Economic factor was the value of secondary industry.【Conclusion】Under the combined driving of policy guidance,natural conditions,population structure and economic development,the spatial and temporal pattern of mulberry plantation area in China has changed significantly.

关 键 词：桑园面积 东桑西移 驱动力 人口 GDP 

分 类 号：F319.9[经济管理—产业经济] S88-9[农业科学—特种经济动物饲养]