基于模糊DEMATEL-ISM太湖流域氮减排影响因素研究  

Research on Factors Affecting Nitrogen Emission Reduction in the Taihu Basin Based on Fuzzy DEMATEL-ISM

作　　者：席轩 张骥骧[1,2] XI Xuan;ZHANG Jixiang(College of Economics and Management,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 211106,China;Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 102488,China)

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,江苏南京211106 [2]中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所,北京102488

出　　处：《环境保护科学》2020年第2期22-29,共8页Environmental Protection Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71101071);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(NS2019045)。

摘　　要：针对目前流域氮污染问题的持续恶化,文章首先在文献分析和专家调研的基础上建立了流域氮减排的影响因素体系,通过模糊DEMATEL法对各因素进行梳理得到关键因素,然后利用改进的ISM构建各因素的递阶解释结构模型,最后进行复杂网络结构分析。结果表明,关键因素大部分来自于政府和技术层面并且位于系统结构的较高层次,同时单位氮减排成本和排污权交易价格虽位于较低层次但易受到较多高层次因素的影响。此外,该系统的复杂网络结构的最大度较大以及平均路径短,因此各关键因素联系紧密复杂、传递迅速,容易导致流域氮污染进一步的恶化。In view of the continuous deterioration of the current nitrogen pollution problem in the basin,the article firstly established the influencing factors system of the nitrogen emission reduction in the basin based on a literature analysis and the expert investigation.The fuzzy DEMATEL method was used to sort out the factors to obtain the key factors,and then a hierarchical interpretation structure model of each factor was constructed by using the improved ISM,which finally analyzed the complex network structure.The results showed that most of the key factors came from the government and technology level and they were at a higher level of the system structure.At the same time,the nitrogen emission reduction cost and the emission trading price were at a lower level,but they were susceptible to many high-level factors.In addition,the system had a large complex network structure and a short average path.Therefore,the key factors were closely related and were rapidly transferred,which could easily lead to a further deterioration of the nitrogen pollution in the basin.

关 键 词：流域氮减排 影响因素 模糊DEMATEL ISM 复杂网络 

分 类 号：X524[环境科学与工程—环境工程]