世界高粱供需格局变动及趋势分析  

Analysis on Changes and Trends in the World's Sorghum Supply and Demand

作　　者：刘晨阳 张蕙杰[2] 辛翔飞[1] LIU Chen-yang;ZHANG Hui-jie;XIN Xiang-fei(Intitute of Agricultural Economics and Development,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;Institute of Agricultural Information,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京100081 [2]中国农业科学院农业信息研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《中国食物与营养》2020年第3期42-46,共5页Food and Nutrition in China

基　　金：现代农业产业技术体系专项资金“国家食用豆产业技术体系专项资金”(项目编号:CARS-09);中国农业科学院科技创新工程“粮食安全与畜牧经济”(项目编号:ASTIP-IAED-2019-01);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项“乡村振兴战略下农业产业发展关键问题及对策研究”(项目编号:161005201901-4)。

摘　　要：分析了世界高粱生产、消费和贸易的历史发展趋势及格局变化特征。从生产方面看,世界高粱种植面积相对稳定、单产水平大幅提升、总产量逐步趋稳以及生产区域集中度较高;消费方面,中国、尼日利亚、墨西哥是三大主要高粱消费国,世界人均高粱消费量有较大幅度的下降;贸易方面,世界高粱贸易波动较大,总体呈现先降后升再降的趋势。中国作为世界上最大的高粱进口国,对世界高粱贸易量变动发挥着决定性影响。未来,世界高粱生产和消费将继续保持相对稳定的规模水平,贸易量或有小幅增长。This paper analyzed the historical development trends and pattern changes of the world's sorghum production,consumption and trade.From the aspect of production,the world's sorghum planting area was relatively stable,the yield level was greatly improved,the total output was gradually stabilized,and the production area was highly concentrated.In terms of consumption,China,Nigeria,and Mexico were the three major sorghum consumers,and the world's per capita consumption was high.There had been a large decline in the volume.In terms of trade,the world's high-level trade had fluctuated greatly,and the overall trend had been to decline first,then rise and then fall.As the world's largest importer of sorghum,China has a decisive influence on the world's sorghum trade volume changes.In the future,world sorghum production and consumption will continue to maintain a relatively stable scale,and trade volume may increase slightly.

关 键 词：高粱 世界 生产 贸易 消费 趋势 

分 类 号：F316.11[经济管理—产业经济]