1961~2018年山西省潜在蒸散量变化特征及成因  

Variation Characteristics and Causes of Potential Evapotranspiration in Shanxi Province from 1961 to 2018

作　　者：邢立文 崔宁博[2] 关静[2] 赵璐[2] 董娟[3] XING Li-wen;CUI Ning-bo;GUAN Jing;ZHAO Lu;DONG Juan(Shanxi Institute of Hydraulic and Hydroelectric Sciences,Taiyuan 030000,China;School of Hydraulic and Hydroelectric Sciences,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065,China;Shanxi Institute o￡Biology,Taiyuan 030000,China)

机构地区：[1]山西省水利水电科学研究院,山西太原030000 [2]四川大学水利水电学院,四川成都610065 [3]山西省生物研究所,山西太原030000

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2020年第2期18-21,35,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0400206-03);国家自然科学基金项目(51779161,51009101);“十二五”国家科技支撑计划(2015BAD24B01-01);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(2018CDPZH-10);山西省水利厅科外处科研项目(2017-006).

摘　　要：针对Penman-Monteith模型计算的山西省1961~2018年20个气象站月平均潜在蒸散量(ET0)进行距平分析、突变检验、趋势性分析和贡献率分析,以期得到山西省ET0的时空规律及其主导因子。结果表明,山西省全年ET0距平值是逐年降低的,在1980年代首次由正转负,而四季距平最小值出现的年代不同;山西省ET0存在唯一的突变点为1992年,ET0在1961~1991年有显著减少的趋势,在1992~2018年呈现不显著增加趋势;山西省58年内气温呈增加趋势,而日照时数、风速、相对湿度呈减少趋势;山西省58年内ET0与温度、日照时数和风速的相关关系为正,与相对湿度的相关关系为负;对于山西省ET0变化,1961~1991年日照时数的贡献最大,1992~2018年温度的贡献最大。The Penman-Monteith method is used to calculate the monthly potential evapotranspiration(ET0)of twenty stations in Shanxi Province from 1961 to 2018.The Cramer catastrophe method is used to test the annual ET0 catastrophe.The climate trend rate method and the contribution rate analysis method based on sensitivity coefficient are used to quantitatively analyze the causes of ET0 change before and after the catastrophe.The results show that the annual ET0 anomaly in Shanxi Province is decreasing year by year.For the first time in 1980 s,it changed from positive to negative.The minimum of the four seasons anomaly appears in different times.The sudden change point of ET0 in Shanxi Province is in 1992,and it shows a significant decreasing trend from 1961 to 1991,but no significant increasing trend from 1992 to 2018.The temperature has the trend of increasing from1961 to 2018,while the sunshine hours,wind speed and relative humidity are decreasing from 1961 to 2018.The correlation between ET0 and temperature,sunshine hours and wind speed in Shanxi Province is positive,while the correlation between ET0 and relative humidity is negative.Sunshine hours from 1961 to 1991 is the biggest contributor to the change of ET0,and temperature from 1992 to 2018 makes the greatest contribution to the change of ET0.

关 键 词：FAO-56 PENMAN-MONTEITH 山西省 ET0 敏感性分析 贡献率分析 

分 类 号：S161.4[农业科学—农业气象学]