基于Gumbel Copula函数的滇中高原湖泊区湿度变化  

Characteristics of Humidity Change in Lake Area of Central Yunnan Plateau Based on Gumbel Copula Function

作　　者：陈晶 顾世祥 陈金明 CHEN Jing;GU Shi-xiang;CHEN Jin-ming(Yunnan Institute of Water and Hydro power Engineering Investigation,Design and Research,Kunming 650021,China;Key Laboratory of Urban and Rural Water Safety and Water Saving and Emission Reduction in Yunnan,Kunming 650201,China;School of Water Resources and Hydro power Engineering,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China)

机构地区：[1]云南省水利水电勘测设计研究院,云南昆明650021 [2]云南省城乡水安全与节水减排高校重点实验室,云南昆明650201 [3]武汉大学水利水电学院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2020年第2期26-30,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：云南省应用基础研究重点基金(2017FA022);国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(2013ZX07102-006-01);院士工作站建设专项(2015IC013);云南省创新团队建设专项(2018HC024).

摘　　要：根据滇中高原上滇池、洱海、抚仙湖、杞麓湖、异龙湖等5个湖泊区1960~2015年的逐月(日)气象、水文观测系列,基于气候湿润指数(H)、相对湿润指数(RAI)、舒适度指数(NET)三类湿度变化指数研究滇中五湖区的湿度变化特性,并采用Gumbel Copula函数构造同一湖泊、不同湿度变化指数序列的三元联合分布(C3)及同一湿度指数在五个湖泊间变化的五元联合分布(C5)进行联合概率分析。结果表明,滇中五湖区近50多年来的H、RAI、NET序列均处于下降趋势,干燥趋势明显;湖泊区的湿度变化存在20~25年左右的周期,春、冬两季湿度的周期性振荡较夏、秋季剧烈,干湿变化更为分明;湖泊区呈以湿润为主、但趋于干旱的特点,在2000年以前为"湿润"概率高值期、以后为"干旱"概率高值期;湖泊区湿度同干、同湿变化现象出现概率多在20%~30%之间,1960~1980年代较为湿润,1990、2000年代后的湿润程度呈减弱趋势,而2009~2013年最为干旱。According to the monthly(daily)meteorological and hydrological observation series from the 5 lakes region of Dianchi,Erhai,Fuxian Lake,Qilu Lake and Yilong Lake in the central plateau of Yunnan Province from 1960 to 2015,three kinds of humidity variation index,humidity index(H),relative wetness index(RAI)and comfort index(NET),were used to study the humidity change characteristics of the five lake area in Yunnan Province.The Gumbel Copula function was adopted to construct the three element joint distribution(C3)of the same lake and the index sequence of different humidity,and the five element joint distribution(C5)of the same humidity index in five lakes for joint probability analysis.The results show that the H,RAI and NET sequences of five lakes in Central Yunnan have been decreasing for nearly50 years,and the trend of drying is obvious.The humidity of the lake area has a period of about 20-25 years.The periodic oscillation of humidity in spring and winter is more severe than that in summer and autumn,and the dry and wet changes are more obvious.The lake area is characterized by wetting,but tends to drought.Before 2000,it is a high probability period of humid probability and a high probability of drought in the future.The probability of humidity with dry and same wet changes in the lake area is in the range of 20% and 30%,1960 s-1980 sis wetter,the wetting degree of 1990 sand2000 sdecreases,and the most drought is from 2009 to 2013.

关 键 词：高原湖泊 相对湿度 变化趋势 联合分布 COPULA函数 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]