北极水域船舶事故特征及关联规则分析  

FEATURE ANALYSIS AND ASSOCIATION RULE MINING OF SHIP ACCIDENTS IN ARCTIC WATERS

作　　者：付姗姗 刘燕平 席永涛[3] 万辉 Fu Shanshan;Liu Yanping;Xi Yongtao;Wan Hui(College of Transport and Communications,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 200136,China;Hubei Key Laboratory of Inland Shipping Technology,Wuhan 430063,China;Merchant Marine College,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 200136,China;Shanghai Chart Center,Donghai Navigation Safety,Shanghai 200090,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学交通运输学院,上海200136 [2]内河航运技术湖北省重点实验室,湖北武汉430063 [3]上海海事大学商船学院,上海201306 [4]东海航海保障中心上海海图中心,上海200090

出　　处：《极地研究》2020年第1期102-111,共10页Chinese Journal of Polar Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51709168);上海市科技创新行动计划(19692106500,18DZ1206104);内河航运技术湖北省重点实验室基金(NHHY2018001)资助。

摘　　要：北极海冰的大量融化,加速了北极航道开发和利用,对北极水域船舶事故风险管理提出了更高的要求。本文以2008-2017年的北极水域船舶事故数据为样本,运用数据挖掘技术和方法,对北极水域船舶事故进行了时空特征分析,并对船舶属性与事故属性之间的潜在映射关系进行了关联规则挖掘。结果表明:北极水域事故数逐年呈上升的趋势,事故主要发生在巴伦支海东部的俄罗斯摩尔曼斯克港口水域和挪威北部水域;北极水域严重事故受船舶总吨、船旗国、船舶类型、事故类型、事故水域等变量的影响,船舶尺度较大的船舶更容易造成严重事故;北极水域俄罗斯籍渔船的严重事故,很多是由机损事故引发的,但很少造成环境污染。研究结论可辅助海事管理部门和航运企业开展北极水域船舶事故预防和风险管理工作。With the melting of sea ice,Arctic sea routes are increasingly used and developed,requiring information to support the management of risks of ship accidents in Arctic waters.We identified latent association rules between ship and accident attributes using accident records from 2008 to 2017,data mining and temporal and spatial analysis.Results show that the number of accidents has been increasing,with most accidents occurring in the harbor ofМурманскin eastern Barents Sea and in northern Norwegian Sea.The small Russian fishing vessel is the dominant vessel type in Arctic waters.Serious accidents in Arctic waters are influenced by several variables such as gross tonnage,flag,vessel type,accident type and accident location.Large ships are more likely to cause serious accidents.Serious accidents of Russian fishing vessels in Arctic waters were often caused by machinery damage,and rarely caused environmental pollution.These findings can be of use to maritime safety administrations and shipping companies in the prevention of accident and risk management of Arctic shipping.

关 键 词：北极航运 船舶事故特征分析 数据挖掘 时空分析 关联规则 

分 类 号：U698.6[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]