中国财政社会保障支出扩面效应的测算与比较  

Measurement and Comparison of the Expansion Effect of China's Fiscal and Social Security Expenditure

作　　者：李宏[1,2] 张向达[1] Li Hong;Zhang Xiang-da

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学公共管理学院 [2]中共大连市委党校应急管理教研部

出　　处：《经济学家》2020年第4期68-79,共12页Economist

基　　金：2019年国家社科基金项目“民生性财政支出的社会安全治理效应测度及其提升路径研究”(19BTJ043);2019年全国党校(行政学院)重点调研课题“民族区域自治视角下的社会治理现代化问题研究”(2019DFDXKT183)。

摘　　要：基于“人人享有基本社会保障”、完善覆盖全民社会保障体系的目标设定,本文针对现阶段全国及各地区的财政社会保障支出与社会保障覆盖率水平进行了测算与比较,并利用2011—2018年大陆31个省(自治区、直辖市)的面板数据进行了计量检验。研究结果表明,现阶段我国的财政社会保障支出与覆盖率水平存在着明显的地区与区域性差异,而且呈现出继续维持乃至持续扩大的态势,距离完全意义上的“全民覆盖”也有着较为显著的差距。当前应在保持财政社会保障支出持续增长的基础上,进一步通过明确目标差距、完善顶层设计和优化支出政策来加快推动和确保“人人享有基本社会保障”目标的最终实现。Based on the goal setting of"Everyone has basic social security"and perfect coverage of the social security system for the entire population, this paper measures and compares the level of fiscal social security expenditure and social security coverage in the country and regions at this stage, and uses the panel data of 31 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities) in the China's Mainland from 2011 to 2018 to carry out metrological inspection. The research results show that China’s current fiscal and social security expenditures and coverage levels have obvious regional and regional differences, and this phenomenon continue to maintain or even expand, and there is a significant gap from the"Universal Coverage"in the full sense. At present, we should continue to increase fiscal and social security expenditures, further clarify target gaps, improve top-level design,and optimize expenditure policies to accelerate the final realization of the goal of"everyone has basic social security".

关 键 词：财政社会保障支出 社会保障覆盖 面板数据 固定效应模型 

分 类 号：F81[经济管理—财政学]