1990-2018年云南省大理州HIV/AIDS生存分析  

Survival analysis of HIV/AIDS patients, Dali Prefecture, Yunnan, 1990-2018

作　　者：尹顺珠 王晓雯[2] 黄丽花[1] 陈志娟[1] 陆梅泾[1] 杨丽芬[1] 陈晓明[1] 熊春沫 YIN Shun-zhu;WANG Xiao-wen;HUANG Li-hua;CHEN Zhi-juan;LU Mei-jing;YANG Li-fen;CHEN Xiao-ming;XIONG Chun-mo(Dali Prefecture Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Dali,Yunnan 671000,China)

机构地区：[1]大理州疾病预防控制中心,云南大理671000 [2]云南省疾病预防控制中心,云南昆明650000

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2020年第7期1176-1179,1206,共5页Modern Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：目的分析1990-2018年云南省大理州HIV/AIDS生存状况及影响因素。方法通过中国艾滋病综合防治数据信息系统收集1990-2018年现住址为大理州的10895 HIV/AIDS病例相关信息,应用寿命表法分析HIV/AIDS研究对象的生存率,采用乘积极限法(Kaplan-Meier法)计算研究对象的中位生存时间并绘制生存曲线。用Log-rank法比较治疗组与未治疗组的生存曲线。用Cox比例风险回归模型分析生存时间的影响因素。结果10895例HIV/AIDS,全死因死亡3337例,中位生存时间15.58年(95%CI:14.83~16.5)。研究对象1、5、10、15、20年的累积生存率,抗病毒治疗组均高于未治疗组。根据不同防治措施分成1990-2004年、2005-2010年2011-2018年3个时期。相较于第一个时期,后两个时期5年生存率和7年生存率均有所升高而死亡风险均下降。Cox回归结果显示男性、初中及以下文化水平、样本来源于医疗机构、未进行抗病毒治疗、病程阶段是艾滋病、首次CD4水平低是研究对象死亡的危险因素。结论早发现,早治疗能降低HIV/AIDS患者死亡风险。Objective To analyze the survival time and influencing factors among HIV/AIDS patients in Dali prefecture of Yunnan Province from 1990 to 2018.Method 10895 HIV/AIDS cases in Dali prefecture were studied,and the data were collected from Chinese HIV/AIDS Comprehensive Information Management System.Life table was used to analyze the survival rates of cases,and Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate the median survival time.The survival curve was drawn.Survival rates of the treated and untreated groups were compared by log-rank test.Proportional hazard regression model(Cox Regression)was used to analyze the influencing factors of survival time.Results Among the 10,895 HIV/AIDS patients,3,337 were died,and the median survival time was 15.58 years(95%CI:14.83~16.5).The 1st,5th,10th,15th,20th year cumulative survival rates in the antiviral group were higher than those in the untreated group.According to the different prevention and control measures,the data were divided into three periods:1990-2004,2005-2010,and 2011-2018.Compared with the first period,the 5th year and 7th year survival rates in the latter two periods increased while the risk of death decreased.Cox regression results showed that there were statistically significant differences on the effects of gender,educational level,sample source,disease phase,antiviral treatment or not,and CD4 level at the first time in the survival time of the study subjects.Conclusion Early detection,early treatment can reduce the risk of death of HIV/AIDS.

关 键 词：HIV/AIDS 生存分析 

分 类 号：R512.91[医药卫生—内科学] R181.3[医药卫生—临床医学]