“全面二孩”政策下遵义市育龄人群二孩生育意愿及其与生育成本和效用的关系  

The second childbirth expectation and its relationship to childbearing cost and benefit among people of childbearing age under the universal two-child policy,Zunyi

作　　者：杨青松[1] 朱海[1] 唐丹丹[1] 毛晓霞 YANG Qing-song;ZHU Hai;TANG Dan-dan;MAO Xiao-xia(School of Teacher Education,Zunyi Normal College,Zunyi,Guizhou 563006,China)

机构地区：[1]遵义师范学院教师教育学院,贵州遵义563006 [2]遵义市新蒲新区教育文化科技局,贵州遵义563000

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2020年第7期1207-1210,共4页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：贵州省哲学社会科学规划课题:不同社会阶层育龄人群二孩生育意愿的调查研究(16GZYB33);贵州省教育厅高校人文社会科学规划项目:育龄人群二胎生育意愿与生活压力的关系研究(2016gh29)。

摘　　要：目的了解遵义市育龄人群二孩生育意愿现状及其与生育成本和生育效用的关系,为全面二孩相关政策的完善提供相关依据。方法采用分层随机抽样方法选取遵义市已有一孩的1256名育龄人群,采用一般情况问卷、生育成本和效用问卷进行调查。采用多项logistic回归模型分析二孩生育意愿与生育成本和效用的关系。结果回收1101份有效问卷,其中有414(37.7%)人打算不生二孩、281(25.5%)人没想好、406(36.8%)人打算生二孩;在多项logistic回归模型中,经济成本(OR=1.089,P<0.001)和传宗接代效用(OR=0.922,P=0.017)是不生二孩的影响因素;而经济成本(OR=0.934,P=0.002)、心理成本(OR=0.953,P<0.049)和保险效用(OR=1.104,P<0.001)是生二孩的影响因素。结论遵义市育龄人群的二孩生育意愿偏低。经济成本、心理成本、传宗接代效用、保险效用是影响二孩生育意愿的重要因素。Objective To investigate the state of the second childbirth expectation in Zunyi City and its relationship to childbearing cost and benefit for people of childbearing age,so as to provide a reference for the development of the relevant policies.Methods A total of 1256 people of childbearing age were selected by stratified multistage sampling method in in Zunyi district,Guizhou Province.The General Status Questionnaire and Childbearing Cost-benefit Scale were used to investigate the samples.The multinomial logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the relation of the second childbirth expectation to childbearing cost and childbearing benefit.Results Among the 1101 valid questionnaires,a total of 414(37.7%)did not want a second child,81(25.5%)were unsure,and 406(36.8%)wanted a second kid,respectively.The multiple logistic regression model showed that the economic cost(OR=1.089,P<0.001)and the utility of carry on the family line(OR=0.922,P=0.017)were the influencing factors of the will of no birth.However,the economic cost(OR=0.934,P=0.002),the psychological cost(OR=0.953,P<0.049)and the utility of insurance(OR=1.104,P<0.001)were the influencing factors of the will of birth.Conclusion The second childbirth expectation among people of childbearing age is lower.The economic cost,the psychological cost,the utility of carry on the family line and the utility of insurance are the significant influencing factors on the second childbirth expectation among people of childbearing age.

关 键 词：育龄人群 二孩生育意愿 生育成本 生育效用 

分 类 号：C924.21[社会学—人口学] R17[医药卫生—妇幼卫生保健]