合肥市生态承载力评价及其影响因素  

Evaluation of Ecological Carrying Capacity and Its Influencing Factors in Hefei City

作　　者：张俊 陈加兵[1,2] 张志强 ZHANG Jun;CHEN Jiabin;ZHANG Zhiqiang(School of Geographical Science,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou 350007,China;Cultivation Base of State Key Laboratory of Humid Subtropical Mountain Ecology,Fuzhou 350007,China)

机构地区：[1]福建师范大学地理科学学院,福建福州350007 [2]湿润亚热带山地生态国家重点实验室培育基地,福建福州350007

出　　处：《海南师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2020年第1期110-118,共9页Journal of Hainan Normal University（Natural Science）

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41001064)。

摘　　要：以合肥市为研究对象,基于生态弹性力-生态支撑力-生态压力模型构建生态承载力评价指标体系,确定27个具体指标,利用熵权法确定权重,借助综合指数法评价模型、相关性模型和障碍度模型,探究城市生态承载力时序演变特征和影响因素。结果表明:2006—2017年,合肥市生态承载力水平先由中承载变为弱承载力,后增加到高承载并保持相对稳定,2011年后生态系统趋向良性方向发展;生态弹性力水平先由低稳定降至弱稳定,后增加到中稳定;生态支撑力水平先由中支撑降至弱支撑,后增长到较强支撑;生态压力水平先由中压升至高压,后降至低压;人均耕地面积、空气中SO2含量和GDP增长率等与生态承载力相关性较强,人均水资源量、第二产业占GDP比重等9个因子是生态承载力关键指标层障碍因素,社会进步、环境污染和资源供给等是生态承载力关键因素层障碍因素。Taking Hefei city as the research object,the evaluation index system of ecological carrying capacity was constructed based on the model of ecological elasticity,ecological support and ecological pressure to determine 27 specific indexes.The weight was determined by the entropy weight method,and the evolution characteristics and influencing factors of urban ecological carrying capacity were explored by the comprehensive index evaluation model,correlation model and obstacle degree model.The results show that from 2006 to 2017,the ecological carrying capacity level of Hefei changed from medium bearing capacity to weak bearing capacity,then increased to high bearing capacity and remained relatively stable.After 2011,the ecological system tended to develop in a positive direction,the level of ecological elasticity decreased from low to weak stability,then increased to medium stability,the level of ecological support decreased from medium to weak,then increased to strong.The ecological pressure level raised from medium to high and then falls to low pressure.The per capita cultivated land area,SO2 content in the air and GDP growth rate were closely related to the ecological carrying capacity.The per capita water resources,the proportion of the second industry in GDP and other seven factors were the barrier factors of the key indicators of the ecological carrying capacity,and the social progress,environmental pollution and resource supply were the barrier factors of the ecological carrying capacity.

关 键 词：生态承载力 评价 相关性 障碍因素 合肥市 

分 类 号：X826[环境科学与工程—环境工程]