转型背景下现代服务业高质量发展政策效应评估——来自试点区域的经验证据  

Evaluation of the Effect of High Quality Development Policy on Modern Service Industry Under the Background of Transformation——Empirical Evidence from the Pilot Area

作　　者：张荣博 黄潇[1] ZHANG Rong-bo;HUANG Xiao(Economic Research Center of upper Yangtze River,Chongqing Technology and Business University,Chongqing 400067)

机构地区：[1]重庆工商大学长江上游经济研究中心,重庆400067

出　　处：《软科学》2020年第3期18-24,共7页Soft Science

基　　金：重庆市教育委员会人文社会科学重点研究基地项目(18SKJD028);重庆工商大学重点科研平台项目(1652018);重庆市研究生创新型项目(CYS18332);重庆工商大学校级研究生创新型科研项目(yjscxx2019-101-33)。

摘　　要：基于政策效应评估模型对试点区域现代服务业综合政策实施产生的经济增收效应进行系统评价与个案分析。在证明不会对试点地区的邻近地域单元产生外溢影响后,得出结论如下:无论是从长期动态还是短期时点来看,现代服务业综合政策实施后对试点区域产生显著的经济增收效应,这种效应是稳定推动且具有可持续性。但在不同的干预时点上出现了异质性,政策红利的边际影响效应在实施初期能够发挥积极作用,在时间冲击中后期却趋于削弱。针对每一个试点地区进行个案考察发现,仅有重庆市和天津市在政策实行干预后出现明显的经济高质量增长,分析原因是其通过产业空间集聚和区域创新机制实现的,而其中制度创新的贡献程度最大。Based on the policy effect assessment model,this paper systematically evaluates and analyzes the economic income effects of the pilot areas after the implementation of comprehensive policies for the modern service industry.After demonstrating that there will be no spillover impact on the neighboring regional units in the pilot area,the conclusions are as follows:On the whole,whether in terms of long-term dynamics or short-term points of view,the implementation of comprehensive policies for the modern service industry has produced significant economic income effects in the pilot areas,and this effect is stable and sustainable.However,heterogeneity appeares at different time points of intervention,the marginal effect of policy dividends can play a positive role in the early stage of implementation,but it tends to weaken in the middle and late stages of policy implementation.In the case study of each pilot area,this paper finds that only Chongqing and Tianjin have experienced significant high-quality economic growth after policy intervention,the reason for the analysis is that it is realized through the industrial space agglomeration and regional innovation mechanism,and the institutional innovation plays the most important role.

关 键 词：现代服务业 区域经济 政策评估 路径演进 政策建议 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学] F719