基于BP-MC方法的断层区管道可靠性分析  

Reliability analysis of pipeline in fault area based on BP-MC method

作　　者：郑倩 张宏[1] 刘啸奔 ZHENG Qian;ZHANG Hong;LIU Xiaoben(College of Mechanical and Transportation Engineering,China University of Petroleum(Beijing))

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(北京)机械与储运工程学院

出　　处：《油气储运》2020年第3期277-283,共7页Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation

基　　金：中国石油大学(北京)科研基金资助项目“断层作用下高强钢管道失效机理与可靠性评价”,2462018YJRC019;国家重点研发计划课题“油气管道及储运设施完整性评价技术研究”,2016YFC08021051。

摘　　要：走滑断层是埋地管道常见的地质灾害。断层引发的地面位移往往使管道变形过大而失效,开展断层区管道可靠性分析对管道的安全评估具有重要意义。为此,基于非线性有限元软件ABAQUS建立穿越走滑断层的X80钢管道有限元模型,计算管道几何尺寸、地表位移、内压以及土壤类型等多因素影响下管道的设计应变,形成工程中管道设计应变的有限元数据,基于该数据库创建了BP双隐层神经网络的设计应变预测模型,建立了基于应变准则的极限状态方程,结合MC(Monte Carlo)法,开展了走滑断层区X80管道的可靠性计算,并进行了管道可靠性的影响因素分析。BP-MC方法计算结果准确,运行时间成本低,适用于断层作用下管道的可靠性分析。Strike-slip fault is a common geologic hazard for buried pipelines.The fault-induced ground displacement often leads to excessive deformation and failure of pipelines,so it is of great significance to carry out reliability analysis of pipelines in fault areas for safety assessment of pipelines.Therefore,the finite element model of X80 steel pipeline crossing strike-slip fault was established based on the nonlinear finite element software ABAQUS,the design strain of the pipeline under the influence of many factors such as pipeline geometric dimensioning,surface displacement,inner pressure and soil type was calculated,and the finite element data of the pipeline design strain in the project was formed.Based on this database,the design strain prediction model of double hidden layered BP neural network was built,and the limit state equation based on strain criterion was established.Combined with MC(Monte Carlo)method,the reliability calculation of X80 pipeline in strike-slip fault area and the analysis of influencing factors of pipeline reliability were conducted.The calculation result based on BP-MC method is accurate and the running time cost is low,so it will be applicable to the reliability analysis of pipelines under faulting.

关 键 词：走滑断层 X80管道 有限元法 BP神经网络 MC(Monte Carlo)法 可靠性 失效概率 

分 类 号：TE973.1[石油与天然气工程—石油机械设备]