有效控制措施下新型冠状病毒流行趋势模拟  

Simulation of epidemic trends of 2019-nCoV epidemic trend under effective control measures

作　　者：柏如海 董琬月 石莹 冯敖梓 李莉[1] 徐安定[4] 吕军 Ru-Hai BAI;Wan-Yue Dong;Ying SHI;Ao-Zi FENG;An-Ding XU;Jun LYU(Department of Clinical Research,The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University,Guangzhou 510630,China;School of Public Health,Xi'an Jiaotong University,Xi'an 710061,China;School of Public Health,Shaanxi University of Traditional Chinese Medicine,Xianyang 712046,Shaanxi Province,China;Department of Neurology,The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University,Guangzhou 510630,China)

机构地区：[1]暨南大学附属第一医院临床研究部,广州510630 [2]西安交通大学公共卫生学院,西安710061 [3]陕西中医药大学公共卫生学院,陕西咸阳712046 [4]暨南大学附属第一医院神经内科,广州510630

出　　处：《医学新知》2020年第2期94-98,共5页New Medicine

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目(16BGL183)。

摘　　要：目的模拟新型冠状病毒(2019-nCoV)携带者进入未感染2019-nCoV地区,在有效对发病患者进行治疗与隔离并降低该地区人与人之间密切接触的前提下,模拟2019-nCoV感染的流行趋势。方法通过公开信息获得2019-nCoV感染者的疾病潜伏时间,患病就诊后疾病治愈时间,以及密切接触感染概率。采用主体建模的方法,构建简易交互环境。假设特定易感人群中第一例2019-nCoV感染者出现临床症状后能够得到有效的治疗与隔离,同时该人群中其余人之间相互密切接触降至最低,评估病毒携带者进入未感染2019-nCoV人群后,2019-nCoV感染的流行状况。结果截至2020年1月30日,感染2019-nCoV的患者疾病潜伏时间为6.6天(95%CI:5.9-7.5),感染2019-nCoV发病就诊后疾病治愈时间为9.8天(95%CI:8.8-10.8)。当病毒携带者进入未感染2019-nCoV人群时,随着该人群每日密切接触人数的上升,感染人数增加。当该人群出现第一例感染者发病时,每日密切接触15人造成的感染人数是密切接触5人的42.4倍。潜伏期结束后,2019-nCoV感染人数将保持一定时间的稳定,感染人数在16天开始出现下降,27天后患病人数趋于0。结论在新感染2019-nCoV的区域内,对2019-nCoV感染发病病人有效的治疗与隔离,同时在发现病例后有效减少该区域内人群间密切接触的前提下,2019-nCoV的传播可能不会超过1个月。Objective To simulate the epidemic trends of 2019-nCoV in a susceptible population under effective control measures.Methods Data was collected from public resources.Agent-based modeling(ABM)was used to modeling the epidemic trend of 2019-nCoV.Assume that the first case of 2019-nCoV infection can be effectively treated and isolated after clinical symptoms appear,and the close contact between the other subjects is minimized.We assessed the epidemic trend of 2019-nCoV infection after the virus carriers enter the uninfected 2019-nCoV region.Results As of January 30,2020,the latency of 2019-nCoV was 6.6 days(95%CI:5.9-7.5),and the cure time of 2019-nCoV was 9.8 days(95%CI:8.8-10.8).When the virus carriers entered the uninfected area,as the number of daily close contacts increased,the number of infections increased.At the time of the first symptom patient,42.4 times people were infected with close contact with 15 people a day than 5 people a day.After the end of incubation period,the number of 2019-nCoV infections will remain stable for a certain period of time.The number of infections will start to decline after 16 days,and absent after 27 days.Conclusion With the effective control measures,including isolation and effective treatment of patients with 2019-nCoV,effective decrease the close contact between the population,the epidemic of 2019-nCoV would not seem to more than one month.

关 键 词：新型冠状病毒 主体建模 流行趋势 模拟 

分 类 号：R563.1[医药卫生—呼吸系统] R181.3[医药卫生—内科学]