佛山市短历时强降雨与潮位组合的内涝风险分析  

Risk Analysis of Waterlogging under Combination of Short-duration Heavy Rainfall and Tidal Level in Foshan City

作　　者：杨帆 许亮[2] 韩晶 YANG Fan;XU Liang;HAN Jing(Foshan Branch of Guangdong Hydrology Bureau,Foshan 528000,China;Guangzhou Branch of Guangdong Hydrology Bureau,Guangzhou 510150,China)

机构地区：[1]广东省水文局佛山水文分局,广东佛山528000 [2]广东省水文局广州水文分局,广东广州510150

出　　处：《人民珠江》2020年第4期15-20,共6页Pearl River

摘　　要：随着粤港澳大湾区城市群的快速发展,城市内涝已经引起社会的高度重视和学者的广泛关注。为探索特定城市的内涝风险概率,为珠三角地区城市内涝风险研究提供科学依据,从内涝成因的角度出发,以佛山市为典型研究区域,采用序列趋势变化分析、暴雨频率变化统计、序列小波分析,以及Copula函数对暴雨和潮位的遭遇概率进行系统分析,构建了佛山市城区雨潮遭遇风险概率模型,定量评估了佛山市城区多种雨潮组合下遭遇概率及其变化趋势,研究认为,2000年以后,佛山城区暴雨次数呈增大趋势,且暴雨和高潮位遭遇的可能性较大,风险概率较高。分析成果可为城市防洪排涝提供重要的科学依据。With the rapid development of the urban agglomerations in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,urban waterlogging has drawn great attention from society and scholars.In order to explore the probability of waterlogging risks in a specific city and provide scientific basis for the study of urban waterlogging risks in the Pearl River Delta region,from the perspective of the causes of waterlogging,this paper takes Foshan as a typical research area,systematically analyzes the probability of encountering storms and high tide levels,constructs a probabilistic model for the risk of encounter of rainstorm and high tidal level in urban area of Foshan,and quantitatively evaluates the encounter probabilities and change trend under multiple combinations of rainstrom and tidal levels in urban area of Foshan by the time-series trend analysis,storm frequency change statistics,sequence wavelet analysis,and Copula function.The study shows that since 2000,the number of rainstorms in urban area of Foshan increased,and the encounter probability of rainstorm and high tidal level was high,so the risk probability was high.The results can provide an important scientific basis for urban flood control and drainage.

关 键 词：暴雨特征 频率分析 概率模型 城市内涝 佛山市 

分 类 号：TU992[建筑科学—市政工程]