临沧市枯季径流退水预报方法研究  

Study on Forecasting Method of Runoff Recession in Dry Season in Lincang City

作　　者：张振杰 李诚[1] 李增国 ZHANG Zhenjie;LI Cheng;LI Zengguo(Lincang Branch of Yunnan Bureau of Hydrology and Water Resources,Lincang 677000,China)

机构地区：[1]云南省水文水资源局临沧分局,云南临沧677000

出　　处：《人民珠江》2020年第4期45-49,共5页Pearl River

摘　　要：临沧市河道枯季径流主要依赖流域内蓄水补给,流量过程一般呈较稳定的消退规律。近年来临沧市旱情易发、多发,2010年出现了百年大旱,做好枯季退水预报,掌握退水规律,为城市供水和农业抗旱的政府决策提供枯季水量预测尤为重要。以西河(二)水文站退水规律分析为实例,结合临沧市河道径流水文特性对比季节性退水曲线法与前后期径流相关分析法,2种方法较其他方法对历史资料样本数量要求不长,方法简单易掌握,预报成果较为可靠,适合广泛应用在临沧市观测年限较短的中小河流水文站点及水库站,对枯季水库科学调度及抗旱有着指导意义。The runoff of rivers in the dry season in Lincang is mainly replenished by the store water in the basin,and a generally stable regression law is found in the flow.In recent years,the drought in Lincang City is prone to occur with high frequency.In 2010,there was the most serious drought in a century.It is particularly important to make a good forecast of recession in the dry season,master the law of recession,and provide a prediction of water volume in the dry season for the government decision of urban water supply and agricultural drought resistance.Taking the analysis of recession law of Xihe(2)hydrological station as an example and combining with the hydrological characteristics of river runoff in Lincang City,this paper introduces two forecasting methods of recession in dry season,that is,seasonal recession curve and the correlation analysis of runoff before and after the season.Compared with other methods,the two methods do not require a large number of historical data samples.The methods are simple,easy to master,and reliable in prediction results,which are suitable for wide application in hydrological stations and reservoir stations of small and medium river with short observation period in Lincang City,and of guiding significance for scientific scheduling and drought resistance of reservoirs in dry season.

关 键 词：枯季径流 退水预报 预报方法 

分 类 号：TV121.5[水利工程—水文学及水资源]