基于多种方法的海南岛万泉河流域汛期划分  

Study on Division of Flood Season of Wanquan River Basin in Hainan Island Based on Various Methods

作　　者：肖静 杨向权 XIAO Jing;YANY Xiangquan(Hydrology and Water Resources Survey Bureau of Hainan Province,Haikou 570203,China;Hainan Provincial Water Conservancy and Hydropower Group Co.,Ltd.,Haikou 571126,China)

机构地区：[1]海南省水文水资源勘测局,海南海口570203 [2]海南省水利电力集团有限公司,海南海口571126

出　　处：《人民珠江》2020年第4期68-72,80,共6页Pearl River

基　　金：海南省重点研发计划科技合作方向项目(ZDYF2019213)。

摘　　要：汛期划分对防汛抗洪工作意义重大。采用SPSS聚类分析、判别分析和模糊统计试验方法,对海南岛万泉河流域汛期非汛期进行划分。聚类分析方法和判别分析方法的结果相互验证,均具有实际指导意义;但判别分析方法考虑了样本系列时序性问题,优于聚类分析方法。模糊统计试验方法对选用因子比较敏感,以流量为因子的划分结果优于以降雨为因子的划分结果。SPSS聚类分析、判别分析和以流量为因子的模糊统计试验方法结果相似。考虑实际工作方便,建议将每年5月上旬至11月下旬定义为万泉河流域汛期,12月上旬至次年4月下旬为流域非汛期。The division of flood season is of great significance to flood prevention.This paper applies SPSS cluster analysis,discriminant analysis and fuzzy statistical test for the division of flood season and non-flood season in Wanquan River Basin.Discriminant analysis takes into account the time series of samples,so it is superior to cluster analysis.The fuzzy statistical test is sensitive to the selected factors,and the division result with flow as the factor is better than that with rainfall as the factor.The results of SPSS cluster analysis,discriminant analysis and fuzzy statistical test with flow as factor are similar,which can be used in practice.For the convenience of practical work,it is suggested that the flood season should be from early May to late November and the non-flood season should be from early December to late April of the following year in Wanquan River Basin.

关 键 词：SPSS聚类和判别分析 模糊统计试验 汛期划分 万泉河流域 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]