燃气圆管道在空气中泄漏源地面逸出区域反算方法应用研究  

Research on the Back-calculation Method of Leakage Sources area of Gas Pipe into the Air

作　　者：焦建瑛 张涛 王嵩梅 何少平[1] Jiao Jianying;Zhang Tao;Wang Songmei;He Shaoping(Beijing Gas Group Co.,Ltd,Beijing)

机构地区：[1]北京市燃气集团有限责任公司,100035

出　　处：《城市燃气》2020年第2期9-13,共5页Urban Gas

基　　金：北京市燃气集团有限责任公司《燃气管网泄漏立体化精准检测与分析技术研究—燃气管网高精准泄漏检测云图分析技术前期研究》项目提供资助。

摘　　要：本文为解决燃气管道泄漏定位问题,采用基于贝叶斯推理的马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗抽样方法,对天然气泄漏的信息参数进行反演,结合各区域可能发生泄漏的先验概率、高精准检测得到的位置和甲烷浓度信息,以及天然气泄漏扩散模型计算的浓度序列,综合计算检测区域范围内地面各位置的概率分布情况,反算泄漏源地面逸出区域,确定疑似地面逸出位置和强度。To solve the orientation of gas pipeline leakage,the Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling method which based on Bayes inference theory was used to invert the information parameters of natural gas leakage in the thesis.Probability distribution for each area was calculated comprehensively by combining multiple information,including the prior probability of possible leakage in each area,the location and methane concentration information of high-precision detection,and the concentration sequence calculated by the natural gas leakage diffusion model.By comparing the probability,the leakage source was found out.Then,the location and intensity of the suspected ground leak area were determined.

关 键 词：燃气管道泄漏 泄漏源反算 贝叶斯推理 马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗抽样方法 

分 类 号：TU996.8[建筑科学—供热、供燃气、通风及空调工程]