GFDL-ESM2M气候模式下京津冀地区未来潜在蒸散量时空变化  

Spatiotemporal variations of future potential evapotranspiration in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region under GFDL-ESM2M climate model

作　　者：毕彦杰 赵晶[1] 吴迪 赵勇[2] Bi Yanjie;Zhao Jing;Wu Di;Zhao Yong(North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,College of Water Resources,Zhengzhou,450046,China;State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing,100038,China;China Irrigation and Drainage Development Center,Beijing,100054,China)

机构地区：[1]华北水利水电大学水资源学院,郑州450046 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038 [3]中国灌溉排水发展中心,北京100054

出　　处：《农业工程学报》2020年第5期141-149,I0002,共10页Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发(2016YFC0401407,2017YFC0405805-03);华北水利水电大学高层次人才科研基金(201702016)。

摘　　要：为探究未来潜在蒸散量时空变化特征,该研究以京津冀地区为例,基于美国GFDL提供的GFDL-ESM2M全球气候模式,得到京津冀地区92个格点2000-2050年的平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、太阳总辐射、平均相对湿度和近地面平均风速,应用Penman-Monteith公式计算京津冀地区未来92个格点的逐日潜在蒸散量(ET0),分析其时空分布特征及其与气象要素的相关关系。结果表明:未来年ET0总体呈增加趋势,RCP8.5情景下ET0上升速度最快,且随着时间推移增幅越来越大。夏季ET0增长速度最快,其次为春季、秋季与冬季,意味着未来ET0季节差异将愈加明显,可能出现更为严重的季节性干旱。ET0空间分布呈由西南向东北逐渐递减趋势,其中中部地区增速最快,增长趋势由中部向南北递减。不同气候情景下平均气温均呈逐年上升趋势,风速、太阳总辐射略微上升,而相对湿度下降。ET0与太阳总辐射的相关系数最大,呈由东北向西南递增趋势,其次为最高气温,呈由西北向东南递增趋势。ET0与相对湿度变化呈显著负相关,相关系数绝对值呈东北向西南递增趋势,ET0与风速相关度不明显。该研究可为农业需水预测与灌溉管理、科学应对气候变化提供基础支撑。The temporal and spatial variation characteristics of future potential evapotranspiration(ET0) can provide basic data support for agricultural water demand prediction, irrigation management and rational response to climate change. This paper has made the temporal and spatial prediction based on the various parameters, including the average temperature, the maximum temperature, the minimum temperature, total solar radiation, relative humidity and near-surface wind speed, where the 92 grid points were obtained in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 1960-2016. The feasibility of climate models was verified using the principle of probability distribution optimization. Using the global climate model of GFDL-ESM2 M that provided by the United States(Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, GFDL), the SS(Skill Score) value of annual mean temperature could reach 0.86, indicating good applicability for the simulation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The prediction period was set from January 1, 2021 to December 31, 2050, and the climate scenarios were selected RCP(representative concentration pathways)2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, representing low, medium and high RCP cases. The temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the future daily ET0 and its correlation with climate elements were analyzed using the Penman-Monteith formula based on the measured 92 grid points in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The simulated results found that the future ET0 showed an increasing trend during this period. The ET0 in the RCP8.5 scenario rose the fastest, with the increment increasing over time, especially in the 2040 period. The summer ET0 grew the fastest, followed by spring, autumn and winter, meaning that the distribution difference of the seasonal ET0 will dominate in the future. This phenomenon may cause more severe seasonal droughts. The spatial distribution of ET0 gradually decreased from southwest to northeast, specifically indicating that Shijiazhuang in the southern plain area had the largest ET0(1 20

关 键 词：蒸腾 蒸发 GFDL-ESM2M气候模式 潜在蒸散量 时空分布 气象要素 

分 类 号：S161.4[农业科学—农业气象学]