基于地方大型管理数据的城镇职工基本养老保险制度可持续性分析  

On the Sustainability of China’s Basic Old-Age Insurance for Urban Employees Based on Big Data of Local Administration

作　　者：李珍[1] 赵青[2] LI Zhen;ZHAO Qing(School of Public Administration and Policy,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872;Center for Social Security Studies,Wuhan University,Wuhan Hubei 430072)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学公共管理学院,北京100872 [2]武汉大学社会保障研究中心,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《新疆师范大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2020年第2期78-90,F0002,共14页Journal of Xinjiang Normal University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“建立公平可持续的老年收入保障体系研究”(15AJL012)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：在人口老龄化、经济增速放缓的背景下,我国基本养老保险制度的可持续性问题越来越受到政府和社会各界的关注。文本基于地方大型管理数据,在对城镇职工基本养老保险参保人群的就业、缴费和待遇领取等微观结构特征进行描述的基础上,构建养老金支付缺口精算模型。结果表明:在不改变当前政策参数的前提下,要实现制度在未来十年获得收支平衡非常困难。通过对养老金支付缺口来源的比较分析可以发现,政策扩面引起的二元费率差异,遵缴率水平、费基等参量变化都对支付缺口产生重要影响。未来的改革需在社会养老保险之终身收入平滑、长寿风险分散和社会再分配三个基本功能间作出选择,回归社会养老保险终身收入消费平滑的首要功能,注重参保者的权利义务关系,以实现制度的长期可持续。In the background of aging population and declining economy,the sustainability of China's basic old-age insurance has become the major concern for the government and society.Based on local administration data,this research aims to describe micro-structure of pension contributions and payment and then construct actuarial model for annual pension gap.Our findings suggest that it will be difficult to achieve financial sustainability for old-age insurance in the next decade without policy changes.Scenario analyses on sources of annual pension gap show that the differentiated contribution rates caused by coverage expansion,collection rates and contribution bases have significant effect on pension gap.Future reforms need to choose among the three basic functions of old-age social insurance,life-long income smoothing,risk sharing and social redistribution,and put priority to the primary function of consumption smoothing.In order to achieve long-term sustainability,contribution obligations and pension rights should be balanced within the old-age social insurance in China.

关 键 词：城镇职工基本养老保险 社会养老保险基本属性 可持续性 地方大型管理数据 

分 类 号：C913.7[经济管理]