近80年天津市雷暴日数变化特征研究  

The Dynamic Characteristics of Thunderstorm Days in Tianjin City in Recent 80 Years

作　　者：闫军辉 王娟[3] 卢山[4] 王义民 兀艺凡 王黎明[1,5] 马煜 崔越 YAN Junhui;WANG Juan;LU Shan;WANG Yimin;WU Yifan;WANG Liming;MA Yu;CUI Yue(College of Geographic Sciences,Xinyang Normal University,Xinyang,Henan 464000,China;Henan Key Laboratory for Synergistic Prevention of Water and Soil Environmental Pollution,Xinyang Normal University,Xinyang,Henan 464000,China;Shaanxi Provincial Climate Center,Xi′an,Shaanxi 710014,China;Gushi County Meteorological Administration,Xinyang,Henan 465200,China;Key Laboratory of Climate Change&Environmental Evolution,Xinyang Normal University,Xinyang,Henan 464000,China)

机构地区：[1]信阳师范学院地理科学学院,河南信阳464000 [2]信阳师范学院河南省水土环境污染协同防治重点实验室,河南信阳464000 [3]陕西省气候中心,陕西西安710014 [4]固始县气象局,河南信阳465200 [5]信阳师范学院气候与环境演变重点实验室,河南信阳464000

出　　处：《平顶山学院学报》2020年第2期75-79,共5页Journal of Pingdingshan University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41501051);河南省高等学校重点科研项目(20A170014);教育厅社科应用研究重大项目(2020-YYZD-10);青海省自然地理与环境过程重点实验室开放基金项目(2018-QZH-K04);河南省自然科学基金项目(182300410114);信阳师范学院南湖学者奖励计划青年项目。

摘　　要：研究雷暴现象长时间尺度演变规律,对区域灾害性雷电预警及防雷决策制定具有重要应用价值.本文利用1934-2013年天津市逐月雷暴日数资料,采用最优分割、线性倾向估计和滑动t检验等方法,分析了近80 a天津市雷暴日数的变化特征.结果表明:1)过去80 a天津市雷暴日数经历了"少-多-少"的多年代际波动,其中1934-1953年与1997-2013年雷暴日数相对较少,1954-1996年则相对较多;2)天津市雷暴日数主要集中于夏季,呈典型的"单峰型"结构;3)天津市雷暴日数在30 a尺度上存在多次快速增减过程,其中增加和减少最快的30 a分别出现在1942-1971年和1955-1984年,线性倾向率分别为4. 46±3. 3 d/10 a和-3. 07±3. 18 d/10 a;4) 1934年以来,天津市雷暴日数在30 a尺度上发生了2次突变,1954年雷暴日数由少转多,1997年则由多转少.The study of temporal evolution of thunderstorm days at long time scale has application value to regional lightning warning and scientific lightning prevention decisions. Based on monthly thunderstorm days at Tianjin over the period 1934-2013,the temporal characteristics of Tianjin thunderstorm days during the past 80 years were analyzed by using Fisher optimal segmentation,linear regression and moving t-test methods. The main conclusions are as follows:( 1) Annual thunderstorm days of Tianjin showed multi-decadal variations. Two relatively less thunderstorm days were experienced during 1934-1953 and 1997-2013;However,during the period 1954-1996,the number of thunderstorm days was relatively higher.( 2) The majority of thunderstorm days of Tianjin occurred in summer,and its distribution of monthly thunderstorm days presented typical unimodal type.( 3) At 30-year time scale,annual thunderstorm days of Tianjin showed several significant increasing and decreasing trends. The largest increasing and decreasing trends were detected during 1942-1971 and 1955-1984,with the linear trends amounting to 4. 46 ± 3. 3 d/10 a and-3. 07 ± 3. 18 d/10 a,respectively.( 4) Since1934,there existed two abrupt changes in thunderstorm days of Tianjin. The number of thunderstorm days turned from less to more conditions in 1954. However,in the year 1997,the changing direction was opposite.

关 键 词：雷暴日数 时间演变 最优分割 气候变化 天津市 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]